March 21, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Moon Sweeper | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | La Kara Mia | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Voice of Spring | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Girl | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | She’sfirstclass | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Misspotofgold | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Queen’s Mason | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Earned Success | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Macho Jack | 1.40 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Justin Front | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Brush Country | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kampai | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tale of Mist | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Love Me Tomorrow | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Holmdel Park | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Trapped N My Mind | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Misty Taste | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jara | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | First Dawn | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Syzygy | 50.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Secret Potion | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Take a Chance | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | King James | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Latin Casino | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Frosted Indian | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Iron Giant | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | The Red Wraith | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | My Roxy Girl | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Baby Boss | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Impazible Donna | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Eloquent Speaker | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Quality Stones | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fight On Lucy | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Did I Stutter | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mia Bea Star | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Funny Bones Flag | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fair Lassie | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Poncho Song | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Afleeting Glance | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wicked Amber | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | I’m Fine | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dancing Kiki | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Honey Money | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Foley Square | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Vienna Code | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Alphadora | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ellarella | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tiny Magoo | 0.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2A | 2 | Absolute Privilege | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bley | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5A | 5 | Tourist Attraction | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Flirtacious Kiss | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Devil On the Loose | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Madame Rose | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Roma Carpe | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.