March 21, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Taken Back | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Star Banjo | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rifle Man | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | In Charge Halo | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Remembermis | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alma Derby | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Taking Notes | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Available Star | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Love in the Air | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gam’s Mission | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bella Conchita | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Transient (GB) | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Peace Broker | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Perfect Limit | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Speed Lane | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Suki | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Pilot Prince | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Black Hawk Ridge | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Ferryboat | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Saint Goar | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | B W P Special | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Flat Out American | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pasion Azteca | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Powerful Man | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Blue Boon | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 9 | Rochambeau | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1A | 8 | Ghost of the Mambo | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 3 | Winners Club | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Implication | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Sliabh Aughty (FR) | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Magna Ride | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | In Sky We Trust | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Graves Mill Road | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2 | Jersey Lillie | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Media Mendacity | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 10 | Miss Unionist | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Chambers Creek | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Danza Lauren | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Half Legend | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3C | 9 | Tiz a Queen | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dad’s Star Cat | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 7 | Thirsty Sister | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 2B | 11 | Smackfire | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 8 | Dare to Hope | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 12 | Leah’s Legacy | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Brightnmorningstar | 12.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Paytience Pays | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ostracize | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Princess Tine (FR) | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Art Rock | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Slightly Sassy | 10.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Danger Zone | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Della Frost | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Faded Memories | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Carson’s Princess | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Boujee Kitten | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Glitterary | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Parker Eva | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Out Loud | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Vol de Soleil | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Paytonsattheplate | 20.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Soul Song | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Roux Ga Roux | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dixie Street | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pickens | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Money and Me | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Outlaw X. | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Broadway Jones | 10.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dusty Boy | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Daddy Cool Cat | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Cajun Up | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Natalie Would | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ursulina | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Arbitrary | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Let’s Skedaddle | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Prominently | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 15 | 12 | Fortheloveoflydia | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Quality of Mercy | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Megan’s Clara | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sneaky | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cruz Bay | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pearl Girl | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Shelley’s Money | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Let’s Celebrate | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Bizzy Echo | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Mary Jack | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Plants and Birds | 20.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Aphrodites Revenge | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Delta Traveler | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Summer Is Hot | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sweet Jackieleigh | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Strummer | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Steph’s Spirit | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Box of Pictures | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Teton Twilight | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mercedes Ladies | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Holy Trinity | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Gigablast | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Akiane’s Soldier | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Fuhr Meo | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.