March 25, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Alpha Babe | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tekila | 1.40 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bravo Regina | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dare to Promise | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Firing Carol | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Barn Queen | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Wicked Title | 1.40 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mongolian Humor | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mosienko | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blitchton Lady | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sister Alexa | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Persian Queen | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Madera | 1.40 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Stunning Munnings | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tuff Bird | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ok Honey | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gringotts | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Pendolino | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Irish Giant | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ninety Nine George | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Simbasalltrouble | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Liquor | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Med School Michael | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lorenzen | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Talespin | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Solar Zen | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Victory Built | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Giant Shoes | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Him She Kisses | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Beaver Creek | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Farragut | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jimmy the Kid | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Apex Predator | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Litterbox | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Dramatic Twist | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Shaker Shack | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Betsy Blue | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Overdressed | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shesadirtydancer | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bustinmygroove | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tap the Barrel | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Half Day Pam | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Risk Model | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Glass Ceiling | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dial Me Up | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | She’s a Black Belt | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Customerexperience | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Freedom Passage | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Elegant Zip | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Buyer’s Remorse | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Patty O’Marc | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Paynt the Edges | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Whats in It for Me | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Beatthatflew | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cape Cod Gem | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dutchmen Forever | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Flipping Fun | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Chief Asharoken | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.