March 28, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Flying With Angels | 1.40 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | I Am the Law | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sono Grato | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rudy Rod | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Exalted Charm | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Principino | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | I Love Jaxson | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Big Mountain | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mine the Coin | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gio d’Oro | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hammerin Aamer | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hardcore Folklore | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Deep Sea | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Schokolade | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bingo John | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Full Moon Fever | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lobsta | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Horn of Plenty | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Writer’s Regret | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Black ‘n Tan | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Orphan Hallie | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kith | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | A Gray for Carolyn | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Another Shot | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Our Lucky Man | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Esor | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mebs Web | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Gentle Annie | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | City Temper | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Anydayisherday | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Left Leaning Lucy | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Appletini | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Evan’s Nice Now | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dazzling Speed | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Make Mischief | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ice Princess | 1.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ivyetsu | 4.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Adhwaa | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Baba | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | South of the Shore | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Haynesfield S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bankit | 0.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | My Boy Tate | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | South Africa | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | T Loves a Fight | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Microscope | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Yankee Empire | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Unrelenting Force | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Trappeze Artist | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Macho Boy | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Allied Invasion | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mr. Fidget | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | I See the Stars | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Spitball | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.