April 1, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Electric Youth | 1.80 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dom’s Feisty Girl | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Road to Remember | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vivazano | 1.60 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Papi’s Baby Girl | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Misspotofgold | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Steppin’ Hawk | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Scotty | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Respect for All | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bellamy Dolce | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ghost Stalker | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ohyoudidntknow | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bowing Snowman | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2A | 2 | Not Phar Now | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5A | 5 | Montauk Daddy | 1.80 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mo Gotcha | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | The Right Path | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mr Phil | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Big Boy Mo | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Not That Brady | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Make Or Break | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Amity Island | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Choose Happiness | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Barista Vixen | 0.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Inveterate | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Big Red Girl | 20.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Whichwaytomalibu | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Quintarelli | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Unbridled John | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Open Lengths | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Social Group | 1.60 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Curlin’s Knight | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | End All Get All | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Super Wicked Charm | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5A | 5 | Indian Counselor | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 9A | 9 | Dust Devil | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Gimme Some Mo | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Grit and Glory | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Parade Field | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | First Line | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Advance Notice | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | This Ill Defend | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Millean | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sharp Starr | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Invaluable | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Water White | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Maiden Beauty | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Alandra | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gone Glimmering | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | A Vow of Beauty | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Reticent | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Humpday | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lord Camden | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bedazzling | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mighty Wind | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Interstate | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Vice King | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.