April 15, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Crypto Cash | 0.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | The Last Zip | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Rhythm Section | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ninja Dust | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | You Are Awesome | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Arithmetic | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Larceny | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Orazio | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Kid Chocolate | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | First Line | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sheriff Bianco | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | War Terminator | 8.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Thunderbird Cafe | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Noble Conquest | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Scherzando | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | King Angelo | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Mr. Buckley | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Taco Bean | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Napoleon Complex | 50.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bar Fourteen | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Clear Humor | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Rush to Honor | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Brattle House | 1.60 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | La Kara Mia | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pleasure Luck | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mabel Island | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fair Lassie | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cheatham Hill | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pendolino | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Betsy Blue | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Cherokee Song | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Princess Pinky | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Positive Power | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Summer in the City | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Mirabell Mei | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Killer Dress | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Cross Island | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Funny Bones Flag | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Choose Happiness | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Love Me Tomorrow | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Misty Taste | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Make Or Break | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Beyond Brown | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Gagliano | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Wear My Ring | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Big Red Girl | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | First Dawn | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Singular Sensation | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bank Sting | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | My Roxy Girl | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Forever Changed | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Secret Love | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dublinornothin | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Wailin Josie | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Fight On Lucy | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Courageous Girl | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Irish Constitution | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2A | 1 | Stand for the Flag | 1.80 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Maiden Beauty | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 4 | Velvet Crush | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | My Sweet Wife | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kilkea | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Lagom | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Mia Bella Rossa | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Capital Structure (GB) | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Jezebel’s Kitten | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9A | 9 | Crystal Cliffs (FR) | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Kissing Frogs | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Shamalamadingdong | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Write This Down | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Blame It On Mary | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Social Whirl | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Kreesa La Wrote | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Spun for Lu Lu | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Fastelle | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Phenomenal Woman | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Runaway Rumour | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Lollygag | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Caumsett | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Dixie Kitten | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mondeuse | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Handle the Truth | 15.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.