April 15, 2021 Delta Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Money Cometh | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Irish Expectations | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Range of Motion | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Reads Landing | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | St Basil | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dewey’s Little Joe | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | The Thimble | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Custom Kat | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Slick It Up | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Big Cypress | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | One Proud Boy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Hog Wild | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Greatest Love | 1.40 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hypernova | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Miss Nitap | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Anothersunnyday | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She a Hot Mess | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sweet Shelia | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Birdie Call | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Everlovinghand | 1.60 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Touchdown Joe | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Last to Know | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wish Upon a Star | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Big Merrill | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Relax Town | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Justa Swinging | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mas O Menos | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Prince Perfecta | 15.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Father Goose | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Dignified N Krafty | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Multidimensional | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Pound for Pound | 1.40 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Maga Man | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flying Honeypot | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nate’s Attack | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Liken It | 7.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jimi’s a Star | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Speaktomeoflove | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Shacks River | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shooting Stick | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Runaway Henny | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tizindy Queen | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Chief Falcon | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lil Hot Toddy | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kellys the Boss | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | J Z’s First | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fancy Face | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Krisynsarasboy | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Flash Me Back | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Temprano | 1.20 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Aztec Delite | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Golden Palace | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dry Wood Creek | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Perfect Parade | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | U Complete Me | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | And Yet Another | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ten Silver Pins | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Mi Copa Rebosa | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Silver Siren | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Madison’s Place | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | This Is My Prayer | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dueforadate | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Realmente Calmada | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Becca’s Whisper | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dixieland Flash | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Island Blue | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sing the Song | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Adina | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Itsnotmyjob | 1.20 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Four Princesses | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | D’wild Baroness | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | C C’s Baby Girl | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Condesa’s Handmaid | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Knight’s Honor | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sugar Shack Queen | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She Wants Half | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Track Smart | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Wicked Smart | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Hunny Hush | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Cool Spring | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Flashing Angelbaby | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mistake Present | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Krafty Boy | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Available Star | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Foolish Steve | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ekaterinoslav | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Masterly | 10.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | King of the Testo | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Freedomfi | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Zens Secret | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Double Barrel Man | 1.80 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | X Clown | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Prizeless | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Palvera | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Wild Bert | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Flashy Brew | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Toni’s Star | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Violent Ways | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Galaxy Builder | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 1A | 11 | Mr. Production | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Izzy’s Baby Boy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Unwanted Intruder | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Dictator | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Greeley’s Dealer | 1.60 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gentrified | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Run Tappy | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Meditate | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Midnight Revolt | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Big Boy Dave Rex | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Secular Stagnation | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Johnnysjourney | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Guitar | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Applewood | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.