April 16, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 3 | Lemon Taffy | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 4 | Hey Red | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Quiet Type | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Scott Alaia | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 6 | Calidad | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 14A | 7 | Seahorse d’Oro | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Aurannian | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Exfiltration | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5A | 5 | Bellamy’spartygirl | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Cosmic Kitten | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Tonilee | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Quiet Horizon | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Theatrical Dancer | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 5 | Idaka | 50.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Kingfish | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Beta | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Icy Dude | 1.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Trappeze Artist | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | No Lime | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fotis | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vitesse | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sinashack | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Warfront Fighter | 0.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Yerosilverbiz | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Jailbreaker | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mister J T | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Jo Jo Katz | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5A | 5 | Awesome Yet Again | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | King Slaughter | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bears Mafia | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Steam Engine | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bronx Bomber | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dark Money | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Scilly Cay | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Seven Lilies | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Malibu Pro | 1.20 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Legit | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Supreme Aura | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Vintage Hollywood | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Whistling Birds | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | American Lincoln | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ajnadeen | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | New Year’s Wish | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Flat Awesome Jenny | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blunt Force | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Liana | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Movie Score | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady by Choice | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rude Awaking | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cadeau de Paix | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Awesome Alana | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Wild Banker | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Just Right | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Daddy Knows | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Danny California | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Cold Hard Cash | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | El Hermano | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pategory One | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Control Group | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Bourbon Bay | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Madera | 1.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Vitanza | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mebs Web | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Gentle Annie | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Happy Sophia | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tuff Bird | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Blitchton Lady | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Appletini | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Anydayisherday | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.