April 17, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Whyisshesoolucky | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Pecan Pattie | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Violent Trick | 8.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Daria’s Angel | 1.40 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Excess Capacity | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Peaches and Spice | 50.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Artie’s Lit | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Jade’s Dream | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Vodka Lemonade | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ghostmon | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bricco | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Unlikely | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Loulovestheriver | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bourbon Brown | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Second Fortune | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Solar Zen | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bedazzling | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lorenzen | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | City Mischief | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dr. Blute | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bardolino | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dancing Buck | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Three Outlaws | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Big Wonder | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Half Right | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Our Troubadour | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Swashbuckle | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Honorable Service | 1.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | The Great Dansky | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mine the Coin | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fire Mission | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Skyler’s Scramjet | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Cliffy | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hero’s Hope | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mo Faith | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Straw Into Gold | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Barleewon | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Austrian | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kaz’s Beach | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Regal Speaker | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Somethingtotellyou | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Coragescontender | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Flat Bill | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jo’s Bold Cat | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Profusion | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Giant Shoes | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My First Grammy | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Millean | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Litterbox | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | True Palace | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Curlin’s Knight | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | End All Get All | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – New York Stallion S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sinful Dancer | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Market Alert | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Devious Mo | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lobsta | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | It’s Gravy | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Papa Smooth | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Writer’s Regret | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Woodhaven S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Sifting Sands (GB) | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Original | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Extrasexybigdaddee | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shawdyshawdyshawdy | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hard Love | 0.80 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | It’s a Gamble | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Minuteman (GER) | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Tales I Winit | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Orma | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Call Me Carmelita | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Sassy Melissa | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Willow Grove | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Esotica | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Reeley Psyched | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Doyouknowwhoiam | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | New York Banker | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Menzamenz | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Madame Rose | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Mill Stone Creek | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Nebo | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 10 | Ms. Gucci Girl | 50.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | La Reine Rouge | 50.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mazal Eighteen | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.