April 18, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Dr Ardito | 1.60 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Big Georges Kingdm | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | My Brother Neil | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shinjuku | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Damilano | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Reunion Tour | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Oliver’s Fortune | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Gotta Go Mo | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Violent Point | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Vip Nation | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Silky Blue | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Doll | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Screamin’ By | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fair Regis | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Dancingwthdaffodls | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Tap the Barrel | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | The Glenmore | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Up Seventyfour | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Easy to Bless | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Take It Off | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bustinmygroove | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rosey’s Peach | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tourrista | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sudden Impulse | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Wicked Amber | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Positive Skew | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Our Little Jewel | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jen’s Battle | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Micromillion | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sky Kitten | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Patrona | 50.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6A | 4 | Discretionary Marq | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Big Package | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sicilia Mike | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Sanctuary City | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ghost Giant | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | On the Couch | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Qian B C | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Valmont | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Mo Maverick | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Altaf | 1.40 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Love and Love | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Risk Model | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Firenze Freedom | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Eloquent Speaker | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dial Me Up | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Halo City | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – New York Stallion S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Laura’s Bellamy | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shaker Shack | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Laobanonaprayer | 0.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shesadirtydancer | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bustin Bay | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jill’s a Hot Mess | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Memories Of Silver S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Bubbles On Ice (IRE) | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sleek Lynx (GB) | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fluffy Socks | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Oyster Box | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ingrassia | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Frost Me | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Song of Innocence | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Bravo Regina | 50.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | You’re Doing Fine | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bay Jewel | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Magical Romance | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Lucky Latkes | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Summer At the Spa | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nicky Scissors | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ava K’s Girl | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Towering Gaze | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Appreciate | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Inveterate | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Shannon’s Girl | 20.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Charlotte Webley | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.