April 30, 2021 Pimlico Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Contraflow | 0.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | More Twirl | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Get Lit | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Disputed Notion | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Distant Thunder | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lucian | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Charging Lion | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Brutus | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dashing Lou | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lectric Choke | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | In Him With Him | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Glengar | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Whirlin Curlin | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Pretty Edgy | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Larimar | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Stay Out | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Make It a Double | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4A | 3 | Tutti Benvenuti | 1.40 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Melisande | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Be Present | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Aladdin Sane | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Artillery | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Martini Lane | 1.60 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mo American | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shaka Style | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Spanish d’Oro | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lasting Image | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tiny Tin | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Paolla’s Heart | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pebble Road | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | M. J.’s Lady | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cairo Queen | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Car Lady | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Creative Alibi | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rapidashqueen | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Alin Azul | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shak’s Hidden Gem | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Family Fortune | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Congress Hall | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bean Indiscreet | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Solea | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Win Then Grin | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Arbutus | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Perfect Exchange | 50.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cougar Vision | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Downcomesthenite | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Helen Gibson | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Love My Cat | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Why Not Tonight | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Writtenbythestars | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Steely Band | 8.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Souper Splendor | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Exculpatory | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sue Loves Barbados | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dalton | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kwist | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | He’s Orientate | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Silent Service | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sky’s Not Falling | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | It’s Sizzling Time | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Big Hambone | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Pascal Chant | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Daystrike | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Algodonal | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Shelly Island | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | No Knock Raid | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Nautical Nature | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Paratycachaca | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Empty Nestr | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | D C Fireman | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Tale of E Dubai | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Golden Emperor | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Alltheway to Cairo | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Jag | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.