May 7, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4B | 3 | Over It | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8B | 7 | Templeman Alley | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Old Town Road | 1.20 | 1.9 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cheyenne Wind | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Fleet Kiss | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Winter Son | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7A | 6 | Sergey | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rising Outlaw | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Guajira | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tapit Doux | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Marlin Quay | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Van Sickle | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Bodacious Baby | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tough Enough | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Burning Desire | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Why Behave | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Ding Ding | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Anna’s Moonlight | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stagecoach Mary | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pictorial | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kiss Theory | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Paulas Game | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cardioversion | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Slainte | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Thirsty Betrayal | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ace Destroyer | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tiz Approved | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | State Treasurer | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Red Blue and True | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rock On Kitten | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flight Time (BRZ) | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Feeling It | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Windcracker | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | No Angel | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Winter Pool | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lavender Earl | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Tap Attack | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bugler | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Carmel Crush | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Banderas | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Spheroid | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Excursion | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cane Creek Road | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Indy Tourist | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Code Duello | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Risk Manager | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Swingin Friar | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Subsidize | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hard Strike | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | British Royalty | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Westward Look | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | I’m Money | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 11A | 11 | Bodemeister Wind | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12A | 12 | Sermononthemount | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Richiesgotgame | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Copa | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mobster Gun | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Military Bearing | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | C F V Red Nova | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Wayakin | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Greener Pastures | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tkotchke | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | The Beat | 12.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Senora Roma | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Ursulina | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flying Aletha | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Girl Named Patsy | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Osaka Girl | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Risky Reward | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Coppelia | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Joy of Painting | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Agog | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Southern Mama | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Never Forget | 15.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Miss Pinkerton | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | R Working Girl | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Stolen Beauty | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Miss Mamba | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Music City Star | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Oooh Barracuda | 30.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Super Brother | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Delightfullywicked | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Peterkin | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Flattery | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wick | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Beaucette’s Ekati | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tiz Valentino Daze | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Saving Mama | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Mr. Banyan | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Orphan Hallie | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Enraged | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Beau Book | 30.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.