Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 14, 2021

May 14, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bode’s Maker 2.50 2 4-1
5 5 Super Sol 3.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 P R Radio Star 5.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Hold Me Black 6.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Jungle Juice (IRE) 6.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Buttered Noodles 6.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Hurricane Highway 5.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 4 Gold Endeavor 3.00 3.4 7-1
2 1 Wah Kah 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 3 Family Man 15.00 5.9 11-1
3 2 Sonic Burn 15.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Desoto’s War 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Texas Playboy 2.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Grand Design 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Moon Swag 2.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Battle Bling 2.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Sylvia Q 2.50 2.2 4-1
5 5 Lovely Ride 4.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 My Girl Red 5.00 3.9 7-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Lake Lucerne 3.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Sister Otoole 4.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Hey Kitten 4.50 3.4 6-1
5 5 All Fact 5.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 We the Clouds 5.00 3.4 7-1
6 6 Taranta (IRE) 6.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Caira 8.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Hat Tip 8.00 7.3 14-1
9 9 Core Values 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Heaven Street 4.00 1.4 3-1
7 6 Tejano Twist 3.00 1.6 3-1
9 8 Baby Quinn 4.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Just Call Ray 5.00 2.4 4-1
8 7 Tiz the Bomb 5.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 La Belleza Negra 8.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Seize the Night 10.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Zip It Scotty 20.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Cachirulo 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 American Law 1.20 1.2 2-1
5 5 Southern District 1.80 1.9 4-1
1 1 Bamalama 5.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Full Charge 10.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Cronus 10.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Derby House 10.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Toffen 4.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Hendy Woods 3.00 2.5 5-1
6 5 Olympic Games (FR) 4.50 2.6 5-1
4 4 Evil Lyn 5.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Winter Sunset 8.00 4.3 8-1
9 8 How Ironic 5.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Joy Epifora (ARG) 12.00 7.7 15-1
10 9 Crystal Glacier 15.00 8.5 16-1
13 10 Russian Mafia 15.00 8.8 17-1
5 5 Tiltingatwindmills 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Merveilleux 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Royal Wedding 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Sister Hanan 5.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Rogue Too 20.00 10.7 20-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Petit Verdot 2.00 1.8 3-1
5 4 Yes Sir Robert 4.50 1.9 4-1
3 2 Edge to Edge 4.50 2.3 4-1
2 1 Sir Giannis 8.00 3.2 6-1
7 6 Big Nick 10.00 4.4 8-1
6 5 J C’s Champ 12.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Pretty Boy Elm 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Valiant Vinny 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Take Charge Ro 2.50 1.2 2-1
5 4 Peter’s Kitten 4.50 1.8 3-1
7 5 Vividly (GB) 5.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Say Hey (FR) 12.00 3 6-1
9 7 Emily’s Oasis 15.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Sunset Kiss (GB) 12.00 3.9 7-1
8 6 Miss Pinkerton 50.00 8.6 16-1
4 4 Margaret’s Joy 3.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Applecross (IRE) 3.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Loaded 2.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.