May 21, 2021 Pimlico Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Thunderinthevalley | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Family Fortune | 1.40 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Don’tbaggagecheck | 2.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shak’s Hidden Gem | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Arbutus | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Perfect Exchange | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lady Magica | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stated | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Eifs | 4.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ravenel | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bustin Hearts | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Princess Killmain | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Nightmare | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Petticoatsnpistols | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Silent Fluidity | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Honorable Lilly | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Nikki’s Dream | 1.60 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sheriff’s Kid | 1.20 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Indubitable | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tua | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Joyce G. | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bobbini | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Tizmo | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lucian | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Zip the Lip | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Self Awareness | 1.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Street Prayer | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Silver Sun | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Disputed Notion | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6A | 6 | One for Sure | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mystic Moment | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Indian Heart | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Luminist | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Estival | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kubie Snacks | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hightailing | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Magical Charm | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dare to Promise | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Peace Out | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Getting Lucky | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13A | 13 | Contained | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Lemon Drop Kiss | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Golden Warrior | 1.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Aladdin Sane | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lost My Vowcher | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8A | 6 | Artillery | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Watchthebourbon | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Rockin Ron | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mo American | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5A | 5 | Manklin Creek | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Union Gen. George | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Souper Fortune | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pharoah’s Fury | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Saint Marco | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Unorthodox | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shanghaied Astoria | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Winston Pegg | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pauping | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cup Match | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Let Us Make Gold | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Belfour | 1.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Unequivocal | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Invest | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Starinthemaking | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | King Mauro | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rock and Fellers (ARG) | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Godlovesasinner | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8A | 8 | Nothing Better | 2.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Forced | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Battlebus | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sky’s Not Falling | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | H R H Jellybean | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chateau de Vizille | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Honor Run | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Padrino’s Heart | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Railmaster | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Xmasinthecity | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Josef Is Real | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14A | 14 | Town of Gold | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Al Brown | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.