June 17, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Brimage | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jamaican Traffic | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Why Behave | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Diva Dixie | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bodacious Baby | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Greedy Algorithm | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Cinnabunny | 1.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rising Seas | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ain’t No Elmers | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Headland | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cofactor | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Santa Elena | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Townplace | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Stepper | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mrs. Barbara | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Eyeofthebeholder | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gillian Elizabeth | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cailin Diana | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Royal County | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | U So Money Baby | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Shanghai Shamrock | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Giddy Up Zoey | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Champagne Camie | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Farm Girl | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Manasota Sunset | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Verylittlecents | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Storm Sequence | 20.00 | 12.7 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Flat Lucky | 1.20 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Rock On Kitten | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Stay Home | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | State Treasurer | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Red Blue and True | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Oro de Tejano | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Twobirdsonestone | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Distorted Ransom | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Jersey Lillie | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Double Dare You | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dianna’s Jet | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sense You Left | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Ancient Brown | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Until Now | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Louemma | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Empress Luciana | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Posh Princess | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sapphire Royalty | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Born Great | 1.80 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chimney Rock | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Smart Remark | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Royal Daaher | 4.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Angaston | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bybee | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Williston Way | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Matt’s Honey | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Champagne Affair | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Its Cold in Dehere | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spun Eazy | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jennemily | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sweet Willemina | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kimberley Dream | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Runway Dreamer | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Whimsical Muse | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Savvy Shipman | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mad Grace | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Our Closure | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dutch Treat | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ginormous | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Skyvalue | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hollywood Hoopla | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.