July 8, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Two Cookie Rule | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Beealea | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Coco Bravado | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Medal of Fact | 1.60 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rip It Ryan | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Suprise Cat | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Night Things | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rakeez | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Agave Kid | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Semi Charmed Day | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Dark Wood (IRE) | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Tom’s Last General | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flashy Richie | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Canary Islands | 15.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Galahad Kid | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | High Hero | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Venetian Dream | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Willow Ridge | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Crankshaft | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Renegade Bob | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Magic Man’s Touch | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Easter Music | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Seanshine | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mongol Bull | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Will Knows | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Contraction | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ripe Attack | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Boom Box | 5.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Zidikai | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Hoodwink | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Godsgift | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Antecedence | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dulce Maria | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Backside Beauty | 0.80 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ozette | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Irish Halo | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tough to Tame | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Richie’s Palace | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mr Creed | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Degree of Risk | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sport Pepper | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Magician Stone | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Russian Tank | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | No More Z U | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Go Yeowomen | 4.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Antalya | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sunday Scheming | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Sense of Self | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lady Brexit | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Good Mongolia | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Northern Alliance | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Drinks On Me | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Clemson Tiger | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Eye of the Cat | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Coni’s Coup | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Admiral Returns | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ol Grey Ghost | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Captain Fantastic | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | New Year Surprise | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cowboys Feather | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Dream Keeper | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rocket Hotshot | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Simple Logic | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.