Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Friday, July 9, 2021

July 9, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Estardo 1.20 1.3 2-1
1 1 Zidikai 4.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Dulce Maria 12.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Next Time You Win 3.50 5.6 11-1
4 4 Arbitrary 5.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Time Break 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Peace Nicker 4.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Torn Jeans 2.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Plants and Birds 4.50 2.4 5-1
1 1 Midnight Frost 2.50 3.2 6-1
4 4 Fox Able Charlie 6.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Locash 8.00 3.7 7-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 King Tito 3.00 1.2 2-1
2 1 Good Yegg 20.00 1.7 3-1
6 5 Lake Mills 6.00 2.1 4-1
3 2 Power Through 2.50 2.1 4-1
4 3 Simple Logic 3.00 4.5 9-1
7 6 Mommas Boy Otis 3.50 4.9 9-1
1 1 Kingsburry Attack 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Smack 1.60 3.3 6-1
3 3 Wanna Have Fun 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Apollo U Anywhere 3.50 3.8 7-1
5 5 Princess Cora 4.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Her Gold Mine 15.00 5 10-1
7 7 Chainmail 4.50 5.1 10-1
2 2 Better Angels 12.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Tre Lee Divine 2.50 2.4 4-1
4 3 Oncewewerebrothers 4.50 4.2 8-1
5 4 French Minded 20.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Greeleys Ice 20.00 4.7 9-1
7 5 Offlee Fun 3.00 5.7 11-1
8 6 Betweenhereandcool 3.50 6.6 12-1
3 3 Bel Bimbo 5.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Splash for Gold 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Tap It Over 8.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Beyond Proper 6.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 My My Munny 4.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Hippie Cowgirl 3.50 3.7 7-1
7 7 Heavenly Scent 6.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Vietnam 10.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Joan’s Way 4.50 6.4 12-1
5 5 Colorofacloud 5.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Duchossois 2.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 High On Sugar 15.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Jimmy D 4.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Barleewon 6.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 P H Factor 1.40 3.9 7-1
2 2 Bourbon Tan 15.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Dollar Blue 20.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Cask 2.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Julio Tutwiler 20.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 No Nay Now (IRE) 10.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Symbolist 30.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Chocolate Bunny 15.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Kit Kowaleski 15.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Tea After Ballet 30.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Holding Pattern 12.00 6.3 12-1
12 11 Andthethunderrolls 5.00 6.5 12-1
11 10 Cockalorum 3.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 Cachaco 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Off to the Beach 20.00 10.4 20-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.