Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, July 17, 2021

July 17, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Convict Pike 1.60 2.1 4-1
5 4 Majestic Day 8.00 2.1 4-1
6 5 Poppy’s Boys 3.00 2.8 5-1
7 6 Dramatic Kitten 6.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Z U Soon 15.00 3.9 7-1
4 3 Talis Park Grad 6.00 6.1 11-1
3 3 Urbanite 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Rachelgotstephen 3.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Isabellacannetella 2.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Raggedy Doll Peach 4.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Lipliner 4.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Rare Action Attack 8.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Aunt Stella 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Freedom Rose 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Summer Belle 10.00 1.9 4-1
9 8 Zazzy Zazzy Dazzle 10.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Miss Raison 6.00 2.4 4-1
3 3 Swoonatra 4.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Lady Bernadette 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Masterful Mistress 12.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Wingspun 8.00 4.8 9-1
10 9 Eminent Victor 15.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Wonderstruck 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Hatoof S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Core Values 10.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Double Blessed 5.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Big Band Luzziann 15.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Forever Boss 3.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 Spritz 8.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Postnup 4.50 5.4 10-1
1 1 Flown 1.40 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Mango Tree 20.00 2.7 5-1
7 6 Galahad Kid 4.00 3.5 7-1
6 5 Packed House 2.50 4.5 9-1
8 7 Chapel Barn 6.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Venetian Dream 8.00 5.9 11-1
5 4 River Finn 6.00 6 11-1
1 1 Bora Bora 8.00 6.1 11-1
9 8 Roar of the Lion 8.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Half Cocked 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Beast Mode 12.00 SCRATCH
10 9 Renegade Bob 15.00 10.3 20-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Arlington S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Betwithbothhands 30.00 1.7 3-1
6 4 Another Mystery 8.00 2.3 4-1
8 6 Captivating Moon 6.00 3.2 6-1
7 5 Bizzee Channel 4.00 3.8 7-1
5 3 Two Emmys 4.50 4.1 8-1
2 2 Zulu Alpha 1.20 4.3 8-1
3 3 Background 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Tut’s Revenge 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – American Derby

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Fort Moultrie 4.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Tango Tango Tango 10.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Clarestown 8.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 In Effect 12.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Accredit 3.50 4.3 8-1
8 8 Red Hornet 15.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 King of Miami 3.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 El Kabong 10.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Bodenheimer 8.00 6.4 12-1
10 10 New Year Surprise 30.00 9.2 17-1
11 11 Shadizaar 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Modesty S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Family Way 4.50 4.2 8-1
2 2 Curly Wurly 15.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Pythoness 20.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Joy Epifora (ARG) 3.50 4.4 8-1
4 4 Enjoyitwhilewecan 8.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Bramble Queen 6.00 6 11-1
10 10 Russian Mafia 15.00 6.9 13-1
12 11 Breeze Rider 8.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Naval Laughter 6.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Oh So Terrible 20.00 7.9 15-1
1 1 Two Sixtyone 12.00 8.6 16-1
11 11 Tweety Show 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.