July 17, 2021 Del Mar Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Poseidon’s Kid | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Head for Business | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Just Ask Ethan | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gone Somewhere | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Warrens Candy Man | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | By Moonlight | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mizzen Power | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gerlach’s | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Half Right | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rocktillyoudrop | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Father O’Flaherty | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Goldeneyed | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Diva’s Finale | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Raging Waters | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Winhappy | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | C’Mon Jenna | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Musical Gem | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | What in Blazes | 1.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mob Boss | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Big Impact | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sippin N Kissin | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Agador Spartacus | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Erebus | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Empire’s Fire | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Freedom’s Glory | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Fantail (GB) | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | California Kook | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lalic (FR) | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cassie Belle | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bye Bye Bertie | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ellerslie Lace (FR) | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | England’s Rose | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Ultimate Hy | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Del Mar Drama | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | New Heat | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Frose | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | So Much Happy | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Censorship | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Smash Ticket | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Desert Dawn | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ruby Ray | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Liam’s Dove | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Baby Steps | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wetherly | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Valentina Ghada | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Half Past Twelve | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Outlaw Daisy | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Peanut Butter Cup | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Ko Olina | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Pelican Way | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Drop Anchor | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Manitowish | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Twirling Derby | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Play the Wildcard | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gates of Heaven | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Final Final | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Audace | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Floyd Moneymaker | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Suances Secret | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Luck of the Draw | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Antarctic | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Storm the Bastille (FR) | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Stage Ready | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | The Black Album (FR) | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | On a Spree | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | French Getaway | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Palace Prince | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Erotic | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Tizona | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Itsthattime | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Full of Luck (CHI) | 15.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Snazzy Dresser | 15.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Brutto | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Silver Moon Road | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Established | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tizhotndusty | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Divine Armor | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Impossible | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Beyond Brilliant | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ginobili | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Royal Insider | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Palace Coup | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Osunitas S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Brooke (CHI) | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tapwater | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sedamar | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nasty | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ippodamia’s Girl | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Candura | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Heathers Grey | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dynasty of Her Own | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | She’s So Special | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – San Diego H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Royal Ship (BRZ) | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mo Mosa | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Express Train | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rushie | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kiss Today Goodbye | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tripoli | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Magic On Tap | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sheriff Brown | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Heywoods Beach | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mohawk King (IRE) | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lincoln Hawk (IRE) | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Spirit Maker | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | The Hulk (GB) | 12.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Nerves of Steel | 8.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Goldini | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wyfire | 8.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Cherubic Factor | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fuego Caliente | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Onenightstandards | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Sensemaker | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Mucho Del Oro | 15.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jimmy Blue Jeans | 12.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Barraza | 15.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.