July 24, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Royal Realm | 1.20 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ashaar | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Giocare | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Prime Time Player | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Good Culture | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Breaking Stones | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jumpster | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Freedomofthepress | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Valentine | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tracy Flick | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | So Enchanting | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Miss Bonnie T | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sitting Pretty | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pathetique | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Suffragette | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Unionduesincluded | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Cantrell Hill | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Win With Pride | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Strolling | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Alcools | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Popizar | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | The Sicarii | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Universal Payday | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lyrical Poet | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bardolino | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Count Down | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Vodka Lemonade | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Forced | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tallaj | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Knockout Punch | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Petrus | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Clamor | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Six Pack | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Disciplanarian | 20.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Coaching Club American Oaks
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Malathaat | 0.40 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Clairiere | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Maracuja | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rockpaperscissors | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Watasha | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chileno | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Labarde | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Midnight Worker | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Volcanic | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Irish Sea | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bourbon Heist | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Fluid Situation | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Faith Runner | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Southern Sense | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fan the Fire | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Space Launch | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hombre | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Munqad | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Calibrate | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sifting Sands (GB) | 10.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Performing Arts | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mira Mission | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Future Victory | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sigiloso | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dream Big Dreams | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Never Explain | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shady McGee (IRE) | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Baby Blythe | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Split Then Double (GB) | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ego Trip (IRE) | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rastafara (IRE) | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Midnight Choir | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Vintage Style | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ingress | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Naked On the Beach | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Good Talk | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Amendment Nineteen | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Caramel Swirl | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Flash Magic | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Entreat | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mucho Macho Momma | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Makingcents | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Glass Ceiling | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Firing Carol | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Zainalarab | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Caress S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Flower Point | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Robin Sparkles | 1.20 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | In Good Spirits | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Caravel | 1.40 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tass | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jakarta | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | My Lips Are Sealed | 1.40 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Choose Happiness | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Just Ok Is Not Ok | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mike’s Girl | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mopolka | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Electric Youth | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Jamaica Joy | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7A | 7 | Cara’s Dreamer | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Unicorn Sally | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Freedom Machine | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Emma and I | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 13A | 13 | Chasing Cara | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | A Bit o’Irish Sass | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Vallarand | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.