September 5, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ned Christie | 1.80 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Egomaniac | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Symbolist | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dom Caetano (ARG) | 3.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Abuelo Nuno | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Street Edge | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Little Toot | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chisler | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Blooming Garden | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gold Incense | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Maga Country | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Irish Tuff | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Talktoeachother | 1.40 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Better Think Twice | 1.60 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Good Yegg | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Thirsty Owl | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Behavin Myself | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Polito | 4.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Myuddermamasapaint | 3.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Nip N Tuck | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Richiesgotgame | 1.80 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Battle Scars | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Smokey Harbor | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Clarestown | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Temper Tantrum | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Storminside | 1.40 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Splash for Gold | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tre Lee Divine | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Shanghai Point | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Willow Ridge | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Diddley | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | McHenry | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Nyoman | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Clyde’s Green Go | 1.40 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pharoah Cat | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Storm’s Reflection | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cowboys Feather | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dream Keeper | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kingsburry Attack | 15.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Poquito Man | 4.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Godsgift | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Go Stormin Girl | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cookin Roses | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Me too Mo | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Backside Beauty | 2.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ozette | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bobbie too Too | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Nice and True | 8.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Aunt Irene | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Erin’s Enthusiasm | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Kenai Cool | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | You Split Tens | 1.40 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Demand Ransom | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Beealea | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Givin Up None | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Z U Soon | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Flashy Richie | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Simple Logic | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Indian Sign | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.