September 11, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dumbmark | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Strate Remark | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dom the Bomb | 1.40 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Greeleys Ice | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Southsider | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Power Cry | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Toe the Line | 1.60 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Quality Hour | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Little Toot | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | King Zion | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Droop’s M D B | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fifty One Ninety | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Firmament | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Chocolate Bunny | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lord Bolston | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mi Enlace | 4.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blooming Garden | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tale of the Nile | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tre Lee Divine | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Citali | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Renegade Bob | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nyoman | 3.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Offlee Fun | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Try Try Again | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Overanalytical | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | American Chaos | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lucky Shot | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gwendola | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cupid’s Ghost | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tequila Revolution | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Oneighthundredcash | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Achilles | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hero Dragon | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hard Company | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Just the Facts | 12.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | And Won | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dollar Blue | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Antrim’s Giant | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Memory Bank | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Christian C | 1.80 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kearny County | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Time for Glory | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Juliaison | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Princess Stella (IRE) | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Gastown | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Wave of Goodness | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Beyond Proper | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She’s Forever | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Takntothecleaners | 2.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | She’s Wandaful | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Miss High N Mighty | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kyleigh’s Candy | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Saint J J | 15.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Vietnam | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She’s So Cali | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Luscious | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Stacy Attack | 5.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Morrie’s Joy | 5.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ain’t She Dahrlin | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Goshen Girl | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Fudge Brownie | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Apollo U Anywhere | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Estardo | 4.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Palette | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Stack Shack | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tiz Susan Ann | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hey Hey | 10.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Anotation | 8.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | My Sweet Kat | 4.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Romantic Attack | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Honey Mug | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Lady Atlantic | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.