Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 23, 2021

September 23, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Godsgift 8.00 2.7 5-1
8 7 Constancia 6.00 3.9 7-1
9 8 Miss Surprise 3.50 4 8-1
10 9 Drama Run 5.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Rachelgotstephen 4.00 5.7 11-1
7 6 Wildwood Maggie 8.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Lady Express 20.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Nice and True 6.00 8.2 15-1
3 3 Singing Alli 20.00 8.5 16-1
6 6 Rejoice an Be Glad 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Glitterary 10.00 3 6-1
6 6 Windy City Girl 3.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Smack 2.50 4 8-1
4 4 Rapid Transit 4.50 6.1 11-1
8 7 White Lies 20.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 April’s Gem 8.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Northern Alliance 12.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 City Fun 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Zandrea’s 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sliabh Aughty (FR) 6.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 High Spirits 12.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Policy Option 15.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Two Worlds 15.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Jeff the Lion 3.50 4 8-1
7 7 Can’t Hide From Me 4.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 P H Factor 2.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Go for Sherrie 8.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Bulldog of Bergen 20.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Power Through 15.00 2 4-1
3 3 Richy 6.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 City Drifter 1.40 2.9 5-1
4 4 Dream Keeper 12.00 3 6-1
6 6 Upbeat Melody 10.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Etched in Stone 3.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Valiant Vinny 3.50 4 7-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bourbon Tan 15.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Clear N Convincing 4.50 2.2 4-1
10 9 Master Guns 12.00 2.6 5-1
7 6 Smokin Richie 5.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 The Green Mo’ster 12.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 King Tito 20.00 3.6 7-1
8 7 Tuff Attack 4.50 4.7 9-1
9 8 Take Me Up Brady 6.00 5.3 10-1
6 5 Grandal 3.50 5.7 11-1
5 5 Biarritz 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Angelino 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 6 Justenufftuff 8.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 High On Sugar 10.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Driver Dan 12.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Andrew the Giant 20.00 5.8 11-1
10 8 And Won 3.00 6.1 11-1
3 3 Kearny County 30.00 7.6 14-1
9 7 Cadet Captain 15.00 8.3 16-1
11 9 Memory Bank 4.50 9 17-1
6 6 Behind Enemy Lines 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Cappy Hour 5.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Hannity 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Duchossois 3.50 4.4 8-1
11 10 Kinetic Swagger 5.00 4.7 9-1
7 6 My Bariley 12.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Gate Crew 5.00 5.4 10-1
9 8 Barleewon 15.00 6.6 12-1
3 3 War Chest 3.00 7 13-1
6 5 Niles Channel 20.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Curlington 15.00 8.3 16-1
8 7 Red Flag Alert 8.00 8.6 16-1
12 11 Admiral Returns 20.00 8.9 17-1
5 5 Bridgekeeper 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Christian C 3.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Pocket Player 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Stallone 30.00 11.5 22-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Zarmae 6.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Dewy’s Hit 1.60 4.9 9-1
3 3 Dancin Nicky 30.00 5 9-1
7 7 Canihaveitlikethat 20.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Dark Wood (IRE) 15.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Giant’s Forrest 10.00 6.1 11-1
5 5 Speak English 20.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Roar of the Lion 3.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Wild Fox 3.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.