September 25, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Galahad Kid | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bullion | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | President Elect | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pocket Player | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Storminside | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Talis Park Grad | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Splash for Gold | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | One Putt Richie | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Virga | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Pitaman | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Just the Facts | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hannity | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Andreas | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dollar Blue | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Remember the Maine | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fleetway | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Frankincense | 3.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tap the Mojo | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Half of Manhattan | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Stopshoppingamy | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sense of Self | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Field Letters | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | U. S. Currency | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ghaaleb’s Appeal | 8.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Flying Business | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Seven Seventeen | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Hey Hey | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Satiate | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Tiz Susan Ann | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Honey Mug | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Emily Bug | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Kyleigh’s Candy | 15.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bella Union | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wicked Intent | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bonkers | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Eden | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Maid of Honor | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Lizqueenfluerdelis | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Stacy Attack | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Goshen Girl | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Blarney Girl | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Morrie’s Joy | 10.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Maximus Image | 30.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tale of the Nile | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ride Into the Sky | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Deano | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fort Ridge | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Will Knows | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Offlee Fun | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dumbmark | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Shanghai Point | 12.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Southsider | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Diddley | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nyoman | 3.50 | 10.3 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Oeuvre | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Shezz Koldazice | 15.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Clare | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Isle of Grace | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Safe Travels | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Clever Kitten | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Freedom Rose | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Z | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Journeyist | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Niff | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lizy D | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Fabulous Philly | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bella Prima | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | You Split Tens | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lost in Manhattan | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Get Hammered | 2.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Finnegan (IRE) | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hurricane Highway | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Follow the Signs | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Trappe Valley | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Olson | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Souper Highvoltage | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mkar the Fast | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Rip It Ryan | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Morriston | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Cowboys Dream | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Convict Pike | 1.80 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cosmic Treasure | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Gagoots | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Overpraise | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Upham | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cloud to Ground | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mister Charming | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dramatic Kitten | 6.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Grand Hideaway | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pleasant Moon | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Majestic Day | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Morethansoultitle | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Yalikeanything | 20.00 | 12.7 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Dawn’s Dancer | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mary of Bethany | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cowgirl Kimmie | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sister Ruler | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Manhattan Legacy | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Luscious | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Juju’s Specialgirl | 3.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Savvy Ally | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chrome Attack | 10.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Table One | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Fine Prospecture | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Belle Brezing | 6.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fox Frey | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Golden Command | 15.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.