November 11, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Saratoga Gaze | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Caumsett | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Out of Sight | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Thornhill | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Duckphat | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Escapewithfriends | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Saluki | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Barrel of Bliss | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Forest Spirit | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Great Workout | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Litterbox | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mo Mischief | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hangar One | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Black Irish | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Flipping Fun | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Exxtop | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Tass | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blue Atlas | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Five Alarm Robin | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Equal Measure | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lagom | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | War Canoe | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flashing Red | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Athwaaq | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Candy Flower | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Kreesie | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Lady by Choice | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Waxman | 1.40 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Khafre | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Core Conviction | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Total Effort | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Scalding | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Disco Pharoah | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Rock Sugar | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Starrystarryknight | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Mo Ready | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Graded On a Curve | 1.20 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Ghost Giant | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Chulainn | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Matty’s Express | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Jack the Cat | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Danzigwiththestars | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Opt | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Quiet Out East | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Microscope | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Prince of Pharoahs | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Vaccine of Hope | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Nay Say (IRE) | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Always Connected | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gun Boat | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Adelie (IRE) | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Super Flattering | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hope Over Fear | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Willakia | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Gem Mine | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dance for Gold | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Martini’s Amica | 50.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sweet Surprise | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Catiche | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Repo Rocks | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Charlie Five O | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | One Whirlwind Ride | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Twelth Man | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rocco Strong | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mr Fantasy | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Copa | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Him She Kisses | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | St. Joe Louis (GB) | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Regal Speaker | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | King Cause | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hombre | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Space Launch | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hidden Enemy (IRE) | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Amano | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ranger Fox | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Quid | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My First Grammy | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Never Explain | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Now Yus Cant Leave | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Salino | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Perhaps Tonight (IRE) | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kemba | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Freddymo Factor | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Zerenia | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Bella Principessa | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lemon Taffy | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Emma and I | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Constitutionalrage | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Adriatic Rose | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pop the Bubbly | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Raining Candy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Creative Legacy | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Scott Alaia | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Della Lute | 50.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.