November 13, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Gran Casique | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cantrell Hill | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Summer Bourbon | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jersey Joe B | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Binkster | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dream Bigger | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Seanan | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rally Squirrel | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Beau Brown | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Wicked Karma | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bohemian Ruby | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Tuesday’s Child | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bless Bless | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lucky Brody | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Arrowheart | 6.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Alite | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Druid | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Prince of Joy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Grey Giant | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Reunion Tour | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Ghostmon | 4.50 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Brennan’s War | 12.00 | 13.2 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bastet | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rosey’s Peach | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Magnetique | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tiz Her Way | 30.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Baba | 2.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tappanzee | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Quantitativbreezin | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Tales of Makenna | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Choose Happiness | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Freedom Machine | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | English Breeze | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Masterof the Tunes | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Finest Work | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Unicorn Sally | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Empires First Lady | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | No Payne | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cinderella’s Cause | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Home for Christmas | 3.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Raining Candy | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Pop the Bubbly | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Stormi Cat Lady | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Witch Hunter | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Left Leaning Lucy | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Immortalization | 1.20 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Blame It On Brutus | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Romantic Man | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Rickys Revenge | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Raising Sand | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mister J T | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Will Take Control | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Napoleon Complex | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Deputies Edge | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | Chanceux | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Kobe’s Legacy | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Pipito | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Urban Forest | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Carpe’s Dream | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Empire Ridge | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Kisses for Delcita | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Snow Candy | 8.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 1A | 14 | Main Event | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Sky and Sand | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Exceptional | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Our Shot | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Inevtabl Conection | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Life Is Great | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Honey Money | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Beautiful Karen | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Breakfastatbonnies | 1.80 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ruvies in Time | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Big Q | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Awillaway | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Happy Sophia | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Risk Profile | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | First Homestead | 30.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Crea’s Bklyn Law | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Happy Medium | 0.40 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Rejected Again | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | American Monarch | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Naughty Prince | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Artie Schiller S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bodecream | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Olympic Runner | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | En Wye Cee | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mandate | 50.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tell Your Daddy | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flavius | 3.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rinaldi | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | March to the Arch | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Breaking the Rules | 8.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bal Harbour | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Our Last Buck | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Field Pass | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Tap the Heart | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Half Birthday | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Empire State | 12.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Alicia’s Way | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lost Anchor | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Endless Crusade | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Unbridled’s Reign | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Keen Dancer | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Beautiful Banks | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bistrita | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Classic Miss | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.