November 18, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | North Carolina | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Action Jackson | 12.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Conglomerate | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Please the Pharoah | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Connagh’s Quay | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Balthus (IRE) | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Summer Silence | 10.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Conquer the World | 2.50 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | American Law | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Esor | 50.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hard Traveler | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Curlin’s Wisdom | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Open Til Midnight | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | The Big Salad | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Convertible Freeze | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Barrel of Quests | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Vibe Setter | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Wicked Bobby | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Your Mission | 5.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Secret Sanctuary | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Silvermill | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Nikostratos | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Kingdom On Paws | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Cagney | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Polka Prince | 12.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Deptford Dancer | 20.00 | 16 | 30-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Durkin’s Call | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kaz’s Beach | 12.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Thorny Tale | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Nicky the Vest | 1.80 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Prince of Pharoahs | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Microscope | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Vintage Hollywood | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Troubleshooter | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Caribbean Gold | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gotanda | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Justintimeforwine | 20.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Halpert | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Bar Fourteen | 8.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Corkman | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Good Culture | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Super Wicked Charm | 20.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Voliero | 5.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bob in Our Midst | 12.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Western Advantage | 8.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sidd Finch | 6.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | My Cara Mia Mine | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Saratoga Chrome | 3.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Russiarussiarussia | 2.50 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sals Dream Girl | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Rcaptivating | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Thefabulous Moolah | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Taki | 10.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 1A | 16 | Caragate | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | False Hope | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | I’ll Go All In | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Queen’s Warrant | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | New Ginya | 6.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Can’t Catch Kacy | 15.00 | 13.5 | 25-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Arisaema | 10.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Samhradh | 8.00 | 15.6 | 29-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Jannie Mae | 20.00 | 16 | 30-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Starship Reina | 20.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Annika Gold | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Saratoga Beauty | 2.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Awesome Indra | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 7 | Gentle Annie | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cover Photo | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Foxtail | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Big Al’s Gal | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Gandy Dancing | 30.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Outrageous Bet | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Shiraz | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Swashbuckle | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Steelersfanforlife | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Phantom Smoke | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Valmont | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dancing Buck | 3.50 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Alphalfa | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Freewheeler | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Bronx Bomber | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | On the Couch | 15.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Barrage | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Noble Journey | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Agent Creed | 6.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Grape Nuts Warrior | 3.50 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Orb in the Tower | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Water’s Edge | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Straight Skinny | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Emperor’s Cause | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | No Salt | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Kringle | 10.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Battle Scars | 6.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Tackle | 10.00 | 12.7 | 24-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lord Flintshire | 6.00 | 13.6 | 26-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Masked Marauder | 20.00 | 15.3 | 29-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Neuro | 12.00 | 15.9 | 30-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fatima’s Blessing | 20.00 | 16.5 | 31-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Juggler | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Phoebe’s Frosty | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Kong Loves a Fight | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Pursuit of Justice | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Heads Or Tails | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Vision Board | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bointheback | 4.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sensibleconclusion | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Almond Cider | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | U Kant Whip It | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | El Veinticuatro | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Workingman’s Dude | 6.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cool Giant | 8.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.