November 19, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 5 | Determined Charm | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Openthegate | 15.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ambitieuse | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Hedy Lamarr | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Determined Gold | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 12 | Radiant Gem | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | On Alert | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | La Samana Laura | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Spicer | 2.50 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 13 | Send for Me | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 11 | Brisky Frolic | 4.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Let Ur Light Shine | 20.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | No Labels | 15.00 | 13.5 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tiz Mandate | 20.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Eyes On Target | 20.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ashaar | 15.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Untreated | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Top Gun Tommy | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Roman Empire | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Adare | 1.80 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | My First Grammy | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Exotic West | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Linny Kate | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Gambling Cat | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mia Bea Star | 50.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Five Alarm Robin | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Dreamful | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Suspended Campaign | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Electric Youth | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Matoula | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Gabby Squared | 8.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Princess Nina | 10.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Funwhileitlasted | 8.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lido Key | 5.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Alpha Babe | 12.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Command Point | 8.00 | 14.8 | 28-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cherokee Song | 50.00 | 16 | 30-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Trappeze Artist | 30.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Potantico | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blewitt | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Playwright | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Twisted Tom | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Beatthatflew | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Noble Thought | 6.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Marble Moon | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Paul the Waiter | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Ekhtibaar | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | O’Gotten Girl | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bay Jewel | 15.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Jades Gelly | 20.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Wow | 30.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rivendell | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tuscan Queen | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Unruly Julie | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wicked Workout | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Screamin’ By | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Messidor (IRE) | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sport Model | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Fight On Lucy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Happy Sophia | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Silky Blue | 8.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Built to Last | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Salute to America | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | G Munning | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Devil Or Angel | 3.50 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Bold Journey | 4.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Salty Heir | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bosship | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Nova Loves a Fight | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Mad Doctor | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Thrill of It | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Unique Unions | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Hot Rod Rumble | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Catching Cupid | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | On the Hill | 12.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Safalow’s Mission | 6.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Asap Restoration | 20.00 | 14.5 | 27-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Et’s Premonition | 50.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Miss Invincible | 50.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Quality Control | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Beachfront Bid | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mostly Harmless | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 8 | Determined Hope | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sheer Alice (GB) | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mesaoria | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Skims (GB) | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Afraid Not | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1A | 13 | Determined Empire | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 14 | Early Glow | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Sealithic | 20.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Miss Sugar Hill (GB) | 3.50 | 14 | 26-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Eucharist | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Indoctrinate | 12.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Matty’s Marauder | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Coach Bahe | 20.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Far Away Look | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mucho Sunshine | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Silver Token | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Papa Smooth | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | War of Thrones | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Brunate | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Magnificent Chrome | 12.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 4 | Perjury Trap | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | Doswell | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 3 | Hieroglyphics | 30.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Hierarchy | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Bakers Bay | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Temple | 3.50 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Mo Gotcha | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Malthael | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 9 | Shooger Ray Too | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 12 | Prioritize | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 7 | Cold Hard Cash | 10.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | L’Imperator (FR) | 3.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Synonymous | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | My Sunny Valentine | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Control Function | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | After the Wire | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Peacebethejourney | 5.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Exotic Cat | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Superbloodwolfmoon | 50.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Tiktoknaway | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Foxtrot Seville | 12.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Raving | 8.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Hit the Nail | 5.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Thismightbetheone | 15.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wicked Happy | 4.50 | 13 | 25-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.