November 19, 2021 Delta Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Guitarzan | 1.80 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Flashing Angelbaby | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Golden Palace | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Krafty Boy | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Nippy Red | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pinch Assault | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Three Run Homer | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Greeley’s Dealer | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Forestdungone | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 8 | Temprano | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sarcastic Tone | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dixieland Music | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Curlins Capo | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Good Times Rollin | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Storm the Field | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rock City Rocket | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Minister’s Medal | 2.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rather Precocious | 5.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Whimsical Lady | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Serape | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Toosie | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mishpachah | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Violet Shadows | 12.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Crafty Princess | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Sweet Sophia | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Malibu Rose | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Mylies Star | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Run Natalie Run | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Chickietown Star | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Beleout | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mo Tap | 15.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bobby Jr. | 20.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pretty Creative | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Conative | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mister K | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Akhnas | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Reprobate | 2.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pipes and Drums | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | I’ll Raise You | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Alterana | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | War Song | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Farewell Time | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chasin Gracie | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jake the Band Man | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | May Hour | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Production | 4.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | B B Moody | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Freedomfi | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bistraya | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Big Boy Dave Rex | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Jimi’s a Star | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Gracida | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Power Jet | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Underpressure | 2.50 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pound for Pound | 3.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Payday Too | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Magawildtime | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Social Afleet | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Kierkegaard | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Much Class | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Young Bull | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bajan Cash | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | St. Louie Guy | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Minnesota Miracle | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Stephen’s Answer | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Hunka Burning Love | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 6 | Double Barrel Man | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | The Aurelia Factor | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | It’sfiftyshadetime | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Suckerforagrey | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She a Hot Mess | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Four Princesses | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Gee Gee | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Bar Tap | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Seven Jewels | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Laurieann | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Puye Timing | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Broke Financing | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – My Trusty Cat S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tapsion | 15.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gris Tormenta | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mama Said No | 20.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Mercury Head | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Opportunity Knocks | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Viv Viv Viv | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | O’Babe | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Free Like a Girl | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Splenda Gail | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sea Level | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Kudos to You | 1.80 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | A. P. Style | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Lake Sense | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Suni Laluni | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Rebel Vision | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Our Little Girl | 3.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Fuhrcry | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Last Ghost | 6.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Miss Laughalot | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Us Second Cute Pie | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bow Draw | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Alberta Moon | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.