December 5, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Frosted Bourbon | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chiachiarone | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Roxen | 5.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tami’s Orchid | 6.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Spun for Lu Lu | 3.50 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Live in Five | 4.50 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | White Hot | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Love’s Misery | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Decreed | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Barrel of Bliss | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | New York Supreme | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Phenomenal Woman | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Fancy Feline | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Orma | 12.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Angeloverthepulpit | 50.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Favorite Impulse | 15.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Cheeky Tico | 30.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Al’s Rocket | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pioneering Spirit | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ansel | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Empire Ridge | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Pony Soprano | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Order of Magnitude | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Smokin’ T | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Charming Charlie | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 9 | Mazal Eighteen | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Linny Kate | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Red Pepper Grill | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Big Time Lady | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Stormi Cat Lady | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Handle the Truth | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | R Working Girl | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | Lot of Honey | 10.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Carly Hustle | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Journeyman | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Soulmate | 15.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dreams of Tomorrow | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bodecream | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Temple | 3.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hieroglyphics | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mohs | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | City Man | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Byhubbyhellomoney | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mad for Fame | 30.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fight On Lucy | 30.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | The Important One | 1.20 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Awillaway | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bank Sting | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Trinni Luck | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 10 | Drums of War | 20.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Front Line Dancer | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Your Mission | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 15 | 12 | Spettro | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Silvermill | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Tiz Snow | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Biondi | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Lord Brownie | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Secret Sanctuary | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Nikostratos | 2.50 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Excursionniste | 3.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cagney | 50.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Uncle Water Flow | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Lookin Grand | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Ortus | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Call My Banker | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Devils Dare | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Relate | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Salty Heir | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Impressionist | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pineapple Man | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Eminency | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Agility | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lazzarito | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Eridromos | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Clash A. J. | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Bossmakinbossmoves | 6.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Chief Engineer | 30.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | City Mischief | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gotanda | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Frat | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | War Terminator | 4.50 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chase the Cat | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | I’m Blaming You | 20.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Giramonte | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | No Salt | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Uncle George | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Taco Bean | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Tapizearance | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Big Wonder | 20.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Volkert | 12.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Veterans Beach | 6.00 | 13.1 | 25-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Panster | 2.00 | 13.9 | 26-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bob in Our Midst | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sidd Finch | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Brazillionaire | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | English Charmer | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Scotty | 50.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Super Wicked Charm | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rally Squirrel | 4.50 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tackle | 3.50 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Justintimeforwine | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Fidget | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | More Like It | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Caribbean Gold | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Good Culture | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Jerusalem Gates | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Cherokee Song | 20.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Chowda | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wild Banker | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Market Alert | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jemography | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Our Last Buck | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lobsta | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Captain Bombastic | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Devious Mo | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Boy Tate | 2.50 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Straight Skinny | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Rinaldi | 6.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Hold the Salsa | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.