December 5, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | World War | 1.80 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Churchill | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Resposado | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Akiane’s Soldier | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Prissy Jaden | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mon Danseur | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dream Town | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jersey Hottie | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Trevilion | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Greeley Went West | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fire Blaster | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Southern Swagg | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Interactif Moment | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rahfees Man | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Harper’s Deelite | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mi Lia | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mila’s Gold | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Alliaceous | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blessed Anna | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lil Ashley B. | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Birdie Call | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nine Line Bind | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Distractor Factor | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Special Connection | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Pi Yo Princess | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Confusion | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Here Comes Lovie | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Palace Magic | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Talented Tapper | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Veils and Vows | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Mission Belle | 1.40 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pinkaboo | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Clara Belle | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Eclipsed | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Earley Rose | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Aunt Ruth | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | C C’s Cowgirl | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mark With an E | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tethered | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Eli’s Girl | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Basti Blue | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Northernreflection | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Chief Kimosabi | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Renati | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gtuone Buck | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cosmic Train | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | I Like Dreaming | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Runwildwithdreams | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | One Time Gem | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shippingport | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Briar Jumper | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lookin High | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Just Gun It | 3.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Freightrainfreeman | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Maximiliano | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Shar’s Treasure | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Canihaveitlikethat | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Vision of Angels | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Da Gold Room | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Color Fast | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Coach Hudson | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gypsy’s Soulmate | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Oxbow Wind | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Permanentdetention | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fluffpoint | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | River’s Raging | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | El Mic Tiesun | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Primeinterestrate | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.