December 10, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Kittenofthe Court | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | I Dont Know Either | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Langfuhr’s Angel | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | St Maria | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lucky Harborage | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Grace’s Gal | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Safe Keeping | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Frosteria | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Judy’s Design | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Flatter Me Silly | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blessing the Flag | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Lovers Quarrel | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Aunt Joie | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Miz Troubadour | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Turf Dancer | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Clear Sweet Signal | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 10 | Kizzy B | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | D’wild Muffin | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Say Yes Again | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mandoline Star | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Oma Lee | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ella’s Lil Star | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Accustomed to Hope | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Fairwell Tax Break | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Policy Option | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Smokey Harbor | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cancellara | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Indy Tourist | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Immortal | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Haleys Sailor | 3.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Extraordinary | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Magic City Classic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bobby Jr. | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Two Mikes N Doc G | 2.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Liken It | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Saul Good Man | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gotta A. P. B. | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Foolish Steve | 1.80 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Svengail | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Cobra Casablanca | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Madame Ready | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Touch of Class | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sparkle of Hope | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Summer Sangria | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Scampering Grayce | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Latte Dolce | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Karalinka | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Princess Stella (IRE) | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tizafeelin | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 7 | Total Malice | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spy a Star | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | Brooklynn’s Dabomb | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Sky Factor | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Madam Henny | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Zero Point Zero | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Joanie Gal | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Chardonnay | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Majestic Union | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Jeopardy | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Missoni | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Trobairitz | 3.50 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cecilita | 8.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | New Year’s Eve | 10.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Girls House | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Honey Run | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Dreamworker | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Queen of Light | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Shishito (IRE) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Swizzlecity | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Treasure of War | 12.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tap That App | 12.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Clare | 15.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Schnell | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shanghai Ronnie | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Herewecometogetyou | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Quest for Avette | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Morricone | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mister Don | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Got Kramer | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.