December 11, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Romantic Man | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mister J T | 3.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blame It On Brutus | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ocean Deep | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rye Runner | 4.50 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Data Deal | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Motion to Strike | 4.50 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alite | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Simple Sugar | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Sutton Valley | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Run White Rabbit | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 10 | Whistling Birds | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Doublepour | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Manifest Destiny | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 4 | Just Right | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gandy Dancing | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | True Gold | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Jacoba | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Bad Guy | 4.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Dream Bigger | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1A | 2 | Bingo John | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 3 | Dee Bo | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 12 | Sicilia Mike | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Jacko’s Day Out | 4.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Goodmorning Angel | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mythreebutterflies | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mischievous Diane | 1.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Toosweettobesour | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Senseofexcellence | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Snow Loves a Fight | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Swinton | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 12 | Fair Haired Boy | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Trash Talker | 2.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Rocco Strong | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Rudy Rod | 3.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hoopla | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Charlie Five O | 6.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | American Gentleman | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | R Boy Bode | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Twelth Man | 6.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Him She Kisses | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 1A | 9 | Bezos | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Celine the Queen | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Cindy’s Choice | 12.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Leeloo | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Glittering Prize | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ribot’s Valentine | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kant Hurry Love | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tijera Lee | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Playmaggieforme | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Easy Play | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Raymond Road | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Queens Dancer | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Royal Currency | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 7 | Honey Money | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Beautiful Karen | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Breakfastatbonnies | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Impazible Donna | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Wailin Josie | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Fair Regis | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Eloquent Speaker | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Happy Sophia | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Vacay | 3.50 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 7 | Quality Stones | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Violent Point | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 10 | Mexican Wonder Boy | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | American Rule | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Crypto Cash | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 12 | Dark Storm | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Musical America | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hammerin Aamer | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Vintage Hollywood | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Air Attack | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Microscope | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lost in Rome | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1A | 9 | Grumps Little Tots | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Daddy Knows | 6.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Garland Of Roses S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Call On Mischief | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Letmetakethiscall | 20.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Song River | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sadie Lady | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Starfront | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Glass Ceiling | 1.20 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Just Read It | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 8 | Tangoberg | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 10 | Donnybrook Girl | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Cause to Dream | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tellaperfecttale | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Big Tony’s Girl | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Tootsie’s Song | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Shining Colors | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Queentigua | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Charlotte Webley | 15.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Mission Trail | 30.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bella Principessa | 5.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Betty’s Smile | 20.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bustinmygroove | 8.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hey It’s Tati | 8.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.