December 12, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Smart Pegasus | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cajun Shots | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Star’s Dream | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Two With a Ten | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Meg and Clair | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Party With Kassidy | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | High Cruise | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spectrolite | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Just Blaze | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Channel Won | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | The Gray Blur | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pure Valor | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | May Hour | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | W W Kan Do | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Half Ours N Stormy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Club Soda | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mista Valentine | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Customize My Quest | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Grey Sloan | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | R and R Star | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Doctrinaire | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Unbridled Hope | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Speedy Luis | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Youvesaiditall | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bourbon in May | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | McFeely | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Majestic Sign | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Metropol | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Calculate | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Danville | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Jailhouse Kitten | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Crusader Express | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Barrel of Bourbon | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Brook Is Golden | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | P T’s Flash | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cohere | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Richards Dream | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Three Ks | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Counterfeit | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 6 | Kit Keller | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Taylor’s Secret | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Ballerini | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 4 | My Dawn | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1A | 3 | Splenda Gail | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 5 | Runnin Happy | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cypress Queen | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Anneau d’Or | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Scarlet Fusion | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hombrazo | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Guillaume | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lighthawk | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Oncoming Train | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Leroy Jenkins | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Ronithelimodriver | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fed Money | 5.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Go Speed Racer Go | 3.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bourre’ Trick | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hot Stove League | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Drewpower | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Aniclude | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Long and Strong | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Criminal Defense | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ready to Roll | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Willy Mc | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Love Ran Red | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Macee | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Lake Marie | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Beanie | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Boston Millie | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Mardi Gras Gormley | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Cajun Two Step | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Come On Birdie | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Grey Grey | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wupkar | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 8 | My Nanny’s a Hoot | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.