December 17, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Becauseofthebrave | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dario’s Angel | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Beyond the Hype | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Amazing Dream | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Love Unlimited | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Saratoga Spirit | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | La Lima | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Whatruwaitingfor | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Miss Pab | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | London Gold | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Dazzling Speed | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gentle Annie | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Awesomenewyear | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mebs Web | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gringotts | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cover Photo | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Quality Stones | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 9 | No Deal | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Barbara’s Bank | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Durkin’s Call | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 6 | Seven Lilies | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Thorny Tale | 1.80 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Prince of Pharoahs | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1A | 4 | Bourbon Bay | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 3 | Yankee Division | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 5 | Opt | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | E J’s Revenge | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Trappeze Artist | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Karen’s Cove | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cause of Action | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | R Boy Bode | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Healy’s Hope | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tale of Mist | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Skyler’s Scramjet | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shamrocked | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Afilada | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lordhearmyprayer | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bad Breth | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | In Traffic | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Et’s Premonition | 30.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mostly Harmless | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Frosted Wild Ride | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Diamond Status | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tweaqued | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Royally Blue | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | No More Mischief | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Slow Crossing | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Milagro | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Rooski | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Our Tiny Dancer | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kingdom Queen | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Luz | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Saratoga Kisses | 5.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Zoomer | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | First Homestead | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | More Graytful | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Easy Shot | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Alcools | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Answer In | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Heavy Roller | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Happy Farm | 4.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Free Enterprise | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Mount Travers | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Jades Gelly | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bastet | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Firing Carol | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Happy Sophia | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fight On Lucy | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Eloquent Speaker | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Madera | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Fearless Fly | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Actuary (GB) | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mr. Fidget | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Speed Effect | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ouch Ouch Ouch | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Super Wicked Charm | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Curlin’s Knight | 30.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mucho Sunshine | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Scotty | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Breaking Stones | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bellamy Dolce | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.