December 17, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 6 | Embarrassing | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Strollin the Bayou | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lagom | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Good Mongolia | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Champagne Horizon | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Quinn Murphy | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Persisto | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Canihaveitlikethat | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tio Blas | 2.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Perfecture | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Da Gold Room | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Upham | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Guitar | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kyle’s Bro Jimmy | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | White Mist | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Gianna’s Gift | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Magical Peapod | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Watrugonnadokaren | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Malibu Moira | 1.80 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Blindness | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Convict Pike | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Sharpendup | 1.60 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tiz Light the Way | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Blueridge Mountain | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tigerbeach | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Nobrag Justfact | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Picking Roses | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 8 | Mangelsen | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | A Lot of Spunk | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rockin Sunday | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Seriously Sassy | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hallajoori | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Princess Renee | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Erin’s Enthusiasm | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ourperfectprincess | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bluebird Sing | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Cartier Cat | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1A | 9 | War Light | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 8 | Unorthodox | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Scary Larry | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 5 | Koufax | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Cool Runnings | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 7 | Scat Shack | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Youkillinmecat | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Indian Springs | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Bourn | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ice Baby | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Awesome Samantha | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Love of My Life | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Secret Melody | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | She’s Custom Made | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Burning Desire | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Zenchua Sky | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Celestial Finish | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Roman Poet | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Silent Power | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Peso in My Pocket | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Creme de Bali | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jesuit | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Big Boss Ben | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Hushed Court Room | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Looking Hot | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sweet Jackieleigh | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Stella Link | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Distorted Kitty | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Brave Nugget | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mac Legacy | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Savannah’s Here | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Grace’s Vision | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sayanotherprayer | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.