December 18, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Grand Priority | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Adieu Le Chat | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fluffpoint | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kingston Street | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Primeinterestrate | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Benbow Cat | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Double You | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Crime Spree | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Murdo | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gemo Rain | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Twirling Roses | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lode of Blarney | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Abuelo Nuno | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 5 | Barleewon | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Hay Dakota | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | The Green Mo’ster | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | New Eagle | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Picking Roses | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | War Chest | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jurisdiction | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Alfons Walde (IRE) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 8 | Common Knowledge | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Gtuone Buck | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ry Dont Lie | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cherokee Takeover | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Surprise Solution | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Solar Star | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mr. K W | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nice Star | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Little Leo | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Young Tuscan | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ultimate Irony | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Okudah | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | No Ka Oi | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Zoffa | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | East Lex | 3.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chief Alpha | 6.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Helluva Life | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Thunder Ahead | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Flashy Richie | 10.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Killer Bee | 20.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | O’Connor | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | One Hitter | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Concrete Finisher | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Ibeam | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Belgrade | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tee Burns | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Golden Luna | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Achilles | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Runandhide Wind | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tricolour | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hierarchy | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Henley’s Joy | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Midnight Tea Time | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Big Agenda | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Entertainment | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Strike Me Down | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Hustle | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Boyfriend Material | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Warrior in Chief | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Little Menace | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Big Brass Monkey | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zion | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Justa Swinging | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Janets Jay Jay | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon St Tappin | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Totally Addicted | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Foolish Dreams | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bitsy’s Custom C | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Own Agenda | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fortuity | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Forever Mo | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Attorney Tim | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Beachcombing | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Cove Blue | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Twoko Bay | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gunnison | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | My Bariley | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Shake Some Action | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Reconvene | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Extraordinary | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Intrepid Heart | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Spectacular Izzy | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Verrazano Island | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Flashy Sassy | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Enough Heart | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Missbudlitelime | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Allstar Magic | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Kohensrising | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Smoothoutthetrack | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Saber Queen | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Temple Quest | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.