December 27, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Afternoon Anejo | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Gran Muchaco | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Asset Talent | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Monarch Man | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | William’s Cause | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shadyfied | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Tizabigmick | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fightville | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Harmon Killer Brew | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Mucho Veloce | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Plum Good | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Maw Maw’s Sophia | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Speak to Me | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Steph’s Spirit | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | American Rebel | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Gilded Apple | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lucky Gone Sweet | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lil Adeau | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Baronne | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Rumble Ready | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dot’s Dollar | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Holiday House | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lunar Rocket | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Snow Candy | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Prayforpeace | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shoot Themessenger | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Holy City | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Corrente de Ouro | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Seeking Sawyer | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | B D Valeski | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Excellency | 12.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mud Island | 15.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Simply Valid | 15.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Street N Sour | 20.00 | 14.7 | 28-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | On Your Mark | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gulfstream Way | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Schmoozin | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | In Sky We Trust | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Populist | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gunner Paul | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pledgeofallegiance | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hooperdrivesthboat | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Steadytillready | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Delightful Moment | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Paris Kentucky | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Whenthedawnbreaks | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Great Adventure | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Lady Maeve (IRE) | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Red Hot Mama | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Colors of the Wind | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Spiritcatcher | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Jusaboxachocolates | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Know by Heart (IRE) | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Spooky Road | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wow Me Fast | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Fever Dreaming | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Bee Right | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Paris Paramour | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Maria Gone Wild | 50.00 | 16 | 30-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Letellier Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Girl With a Dream | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Com’ On Sweet Luv | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Implosion | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mystique Saboteur | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Red Hot Moon | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Runnin Happy | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Julesforyou | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Microbiome | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Woodchopper S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Point Me By | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Big Lake | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Awesome Gerry | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Excess Magic | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Rightandjust | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hidden Enemy (IRE) | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Who Took the Money | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Temper Tantrum | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Warrior in Chief | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Concert Tour | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 3 | Arabian Prince | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Joseph E. Spanky Broussard Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cheetara (CHI) | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Audrey’s Time | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Powder River | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Velvet Crush | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Judy’s Way | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Microcap | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Tap Dance Fever | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Moon Swag | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Pago Hop S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Barista | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Arm Candy | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Princess Theorem | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Out of Sorts | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Amalfi Princess | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Lovely Ride | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Amiche | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Suki | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Becca’s Rocket | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Assertive Style | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Touch of Class | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Youens | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Inajiffy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Sugar Bowl S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Higher Standard | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Underhill’s Tab | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chattalot | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hoist the Gold | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Freelancer | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kaely’s Brother | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Blue Kentucky | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Magician Stone | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Special Breed | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.