December 30, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Slide | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sister Chloe | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Zero Point Zero | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Total Malice | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Valerie Valeski | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hoodwink | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Basti Blue | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Itellyouthefacts | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bouldering | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | I Like Dreaming | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chief Kimosabi | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Northernreflection | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Iknowididn’tdothat | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Guitartuition Plzz | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Flashback Wind | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mo Credo | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Johnny Bootleggs | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Blaze of Gray | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Oneforvivi | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Fire Blaster | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Interactif Moment | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rahfees Man | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Too Much Bourbon | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cryptozonic | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bet Again | 5.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sr. Clarky | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Vintage Vinyl | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mizzen Man | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cyclone | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Cunningham | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | B D Valeski | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Seeking Sawyer | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stitched | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Holy City | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Seeking Home | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Corrente de Ouro | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Sweet Dreams Babe | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Prizeless | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | O’L Red | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hooray Austin | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Southern Swagg | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Reckless Ransom | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Halfmoon Reef | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Priority | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | C’Mon Ve | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Production | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Power Jet | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Payday Too | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Imindycatbirdseat | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | City Park | 5.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Jaci’s Royalty | 4.50 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Maga Man | 8.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Standing Man | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mr. Four Sevens | 10.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Guitar Slim | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Reluctant Warrior | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Im a Cowboy Too | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Commander Scott | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | War Savvy | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bayou Jam | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shanghai Ronnie | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Your Time’s Coming | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Guilty Lover | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | We Need a Five | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Coach Kenny | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 4 | Four Dawn | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Gillian Elizabeth | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Soulstone | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Gimme Candy | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 16 | 8 | My Friend Amy | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 7 | Please Be Kind | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Eileen Gray | 12.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vinegar Veggies | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Summer Tsunami | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Smoke in Your Eyes | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Coco Puff | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Aboukir Bay | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Sin City Gal | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Triple P | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Jibe | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Ryan’s Grace | 12.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Palace Magic | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Notreallynotreally | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 11 | Special Spots | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Loneshilohspecial | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Supertrix | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Madison Joy | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Funkylittleshack | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Pi Yo Princess | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Sweet Bay | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Veils and Vows | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Talented Tapper | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Lillie and Nan | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.