January 21, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Rockdale | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Charming Bullet | 20.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Da Gold Room | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kyle’s Bro Jimmy | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Homeland Messa | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Maximiliano | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Thirtyeightcaliber | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Criminal Defense | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1A | 6 | Science (IRE) | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Treasury | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gimme Some Mo | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | U S Navy Cross | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 2 | Outlier | 2.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Rock Star Alex | 20.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Classic’s Omega | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ry Dont Lie | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Magic Ice | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Anyotherquestions | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Magnolia Ridge | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Runwildwithdreams | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | I Like Dreaming | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | More Harder | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Stitched | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sweet Dreams Babe | 20.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fightville | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Vasilevskiy (IRE) | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Math Man | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hero Dragon | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Achilles | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tizabigmick | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Katie’s Karat | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spy a Star | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sneak Peek | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Valerie Valeski | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fandancer | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Zero Point Zero | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sky Factor | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Connie Baby | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | Jeb’s Lucky Eight | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | City Park | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Run Rocket | 2.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Payday Too | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Maga Man | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Jaci’s Royalty | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Imindycatbirdseat | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 6 | Reluctant Warrior | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2B | 10 | War Count | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 9 | Luckenbacher | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Fine Cotton | 12.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Whispered Kiss | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Joan’s Way | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chione | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Anna Volante | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hero’s Daughter | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Dial It Up a Notch | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Influential | 20.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Master McGrath | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sailor’s Return | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Beau Noir (IRE) | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jimmy Dan | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | High Deff (FR) | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tonal Impact | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Defied | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Global Empire | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Kehron’s Creed | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kick N Kiss | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ella’s Lil Star | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Lucky Linz | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Oma Lee | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Active Girl | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blondie Lox Babe | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tuffology | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Peaceful Vision | 4.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gilded Apple | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Fancy Mallory | 3.50 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.