Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, January 21, 2022

January 21, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Rockdale 3.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Charming Bullet 20.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Da Gold Room 5.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Kyle’s Bro Jimmy 8.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Homeland Messa 5.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Maximiliano 2.50 4.7 9-1
2 2 Thirtyeightcaliber 3.50 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Criminal Defense 4.50 1.6 3-1
1A 6 Science (IRE) 2.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Treasury 3.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Gimme Some Mo 3.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 U S Navy Cross 3.50 4.1 8-1
1 2 Outlier 2.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Rock Star Alex 20.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Classic’s Omega 8.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Ry Dont Lie 4.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Magic Ice 3.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Anyotherquestions 8.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Magnolia Ridge 5.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Runwildwithdreams 12.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 I Like Dreaming 4.50 3.3 6-1
8 8 More Harder 6.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Stitched 5.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Sweet Dreams Babe 20.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Fightville 5.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Vasilevskiy (IRE) 4.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Math Man 5.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Hero Dragon 8.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Achilles 4.00 3 6-1
4 4 Tizabigmick 3.50 3.6 7-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Katie’s Karat 4.00 2 4-1
4 4 Spy a Star 4.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Sneak Peek 3.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Valerie Valeski 8.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Fandancer 10.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Zero Point Zero 6.00 6.1 11-1
5 5 Sky Factor 5.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Connie Baby 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 1 Jeb’s Lucky Eight 8.00 3 6-1
5 4 City Park 3.00 3.4 6-1
4 3 Run Rocket 2.50 3.4 7-1
1 2 Payday Too 3.50 3.8 7-1
7 7 Maga Man 8.00 4.7 9-1
6 5 Jaci’s Royalty 5.00 5.1 10-1
1A 8 Imindycatbirdseat 3.50 5.4 10-1
2 6 Reluctant Warrior 8.00 5.7 11-1
2B 10 War Count 8.00 SCRATCH
8 9 Luckenbacher 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Fine Cotton 12.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Whispered Kiss 3.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Joan’s Way 12.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Chione 1.60 4 8-1
1 1 Anna Volante 2.50 4.3 8-1
2 2 Hero’s Daughter 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Dial It Up a Notch 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Influential 20.00 1.3 3-1
7 7 Master McGrath 6.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Sailor’s Return 4.50 2.3 4-1
9 9 Beau Noir (IRE) 8.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Jimmy Dan 4.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 High Deff (FR) 3.50 4.3 8-1
8 8 Tonal Impact 8.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Defied 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Global Empire 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Kehron’s Creed 20.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Kick N Kiss 12.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Ella’s Lil Star 10.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Lucky Linz 8.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Oma Lee 8.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Active Girl 20.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Blondie Lox Babe 8.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Tuffology 5.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Peaceful Vision 4.50 6.5 12-1
4 4 Gilded Apple 8.00 7.1 13-1
11 11 Fancy Mallory 3.50 7.1 13-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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Scoreboard
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3rd - 2:52
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2nd - 8:45
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End 2nd
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Final
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Top 7th
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Top 5th
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Top 7th
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