January 29, 2022 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Pathological | 4.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Union Lights | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Eagle in Love | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Long Term | 0.20 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cheeky Tico | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ginnsu Warrior | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | St. Lukes | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hot Stepper | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Convertible Freeze | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dontbelate | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | R Doc | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Eddie the Great | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bosship | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Southern Civility | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lazzarito | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | He’s Got It | 1.20 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nova Loves a Fight | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Blushable | 6.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Courageous Girl | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Default Protection | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Honey Money | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Vienna Code | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Chaysenbryn | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Go Lime | 30.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Comedic Timing | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rational Choice | 1.20 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Everesting | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mandatory | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bay Street Money | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Brunate | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Malibu Star | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mister Winston | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Run Casper Run | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Litterbox | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Matty’s Marauder | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Tale of Mineshaft | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Forgotten Mission | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ghostmon | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Scorpion Dynasty | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Croatian | 6.00 | 0.9 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hammerin Aamer | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Texas Swing | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mystic Night | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tiergan | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pioneer Spirit | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Toboggan S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Drafted | 12.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | War Tocsin | 30.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Penguin Power | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Repo Rocks | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hopeful Treasure | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Happy Medium | 0.60 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Chateau | 3.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Pineapple Man | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Eminency | 1.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Infeasible | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Timmy Me Boy | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Devil’s Edge | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Barrel of Quests | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cave Man | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Regal Empire | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Devious Banker | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.