January 29, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | P T’s Flash | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Richards Dream | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Custom Sierra | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Louisiana Thunder | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cryptorithm | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Grand Priority | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Daves Friend Dewey | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Brook Is Golden | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Yoakam | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 7 | Hot Stove League | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Aniclude | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Full Dinner Jacket | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Flying Curlin | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Bold Minister | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Groom Lake | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Fiftyfive Strong | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Ronithelimodriver | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gunner Paul | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Holy Emperor | 3.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 12 | Leroy Jenkins | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 13 | Ekati’s Verve | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 11 | Exclaim | 12.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Schnell | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bourbon St Tappin | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Totally Addicted | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gold Punch | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mucho Marvin | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Janets Jay Jay | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nosy Banker | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Money and Me | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Citadel | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Haleys Sailor | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Policy Option | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Elusive d’Oro | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Awe Shackle | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Smokey Harbor | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Courageously | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Cave Hill | 4.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Briar Jumper | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 8 | Akhnas | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Perfect Choice | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2B | 6 | Misty Veil | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Fire Coral | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Suki | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 7 | Judy’s Way | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Good Penny | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 8 | Gianna’s Gift | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 5 | Lady Frosted | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Whenthedawnbreaks | 4.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Charging Nellie | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mission Belle | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pearl Earring | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Maxine Machine | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | New Year’s Eve | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bizymaline | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lola Flo | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mystique Saboteur | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Love of My Heart | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Curvette | 1.40 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rookery | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ain’t She Dahrlin | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Melody Rose | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Aunt Joie | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Complete Court | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Latte Dolce | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Frederick P. Aime Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Euphoric | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Change of Control | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Onerollofthedice | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | She Can’t Sing | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pathetique | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Drapes | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Brooke Marie | 3.50 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Elle Z | 2.50 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Acting Out | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Offspring | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hotpin | 6.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Maximum Fury | 20.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Duvee | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Adieu Le Chat | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Half Magic | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Coffee County | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mr Elvin | 2.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Inthealy | 5.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | It’s a Bird | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.