Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, January 29, 2022

January 29, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 P T’s Flash 4.50 2.5 5-1
9 9 Richards Dream 20.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Custom Sierra 2.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 Louisiana Thunder 6.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Cryptorithm 15.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Grand Priority 3.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Daves Friend Dewey 6.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Brook Is Golden 15.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Yoakam 8.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 7 Hot Stove League 3.50 3.4 6-1
2 1 Aniclude 12.00 3.4 6-1
3 2 Full Dinner Jacket 12.00 3.9 7-1
8 9 Flying Curlin 6.00 4.1 8-1
7 8 Bold Minister 15.00 4.3 8-1
9 10 Groom Lake 8.00 5.7 11-1
1A 6 Fiftyfive Strong 4.50 5.9 11-1
1 4 Ronithelimodriver 4.50 6.8 13-1
5 5 Gunner Paul 8.00 7.2 14-1
4 3 Holy Emperor 3.00 7.2 14-1
11 12 Leroy Jenkins 8.00 SCRATCH
12 13 Ekati’s Verve 4.00 SCRATCH
10 11 Exclaim 12.00 10.2 19-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Schnell 3.50 1.7 3-1
8 8 Bourbon St Tappin 8.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Totally Addicted 8.00 3 6-1
3 3 Gold Punch 6.00 3 6-1
6 6 Mucho Marvin 15.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Janets Jay Jay 2.50 4.8 9-1
2 2 Nosy Banker 4.50 5.8 11-1
1 1 Money and Me 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Citadel 12.00 2.3 4-1
1A 6 Haleys Sailor 4.50 2.5 5-1
2 1 Policy Option 5.00 2.5 5-1
4 3 Elusive d’Oro 12.00 3.2 6-1
1 4 Awe Shackle 4.50 3.9 7-1
9 10 Smokey Harbor 4.50 3.9 7-1
6 7 Courageously 3.50 5.4 10-1
8 9 Cave Hill 4.00 6.7 13-1
3 2 Briar Jumper 15.00 SCRATCH
7 8 Akhnas 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Perfect Choice 3.00 1.9 4-1
2B 6 Misty Veil 2.50 2 4-1
3 2 Fire Coral 3.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Suki 4.50 2.5 5-1
5 7 Judy’s Way 8.00 2.6 5-1
1A 4 Good Penny 4.50 5.9 11-1
6 8 Gianna’s Gift 6.00 6 11-1
2 5 Lady Frosted 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Whenthedawnbreaks 4.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Charging Nellie 8.00 2 4-1
6 6 Mission Belle 8.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Pearl Earring 2.50 3.6 7-1
3 3 Maxine Machine 3.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 New Year’s Eve 4.50 4.6 9-1
8 8 Bizymaline 10.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Lola Flo 15.00 7.7 15-1
9 9 Mystique Saboteur 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Love of My Heart 8.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Curvette 1.40 2.7 5-1
5 5 Rookery 3.50 2.9 6-1
2 2 Ain’t She Dahrlin 5.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Melody Rose 20.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Aunt Joie 6.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 The Complete Court 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Latte Dolce 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Frederick P. Aime Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Euphoric 8.00 2.6 5-1
8 6 Change of Control 3.00 3 6-1
10 8 Onerollofthedice 15.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 She Can’t Sing 10.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Pathetique 20.00 3.7 7-1
9 7 Drapes 12.00 6 11-1
1 1 Brooke Marie 3.50 6.6 13-1
6 5 Elle Z 2.50 7.2 14-1
5 5 Acting Out 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Offspring 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Hotpin 6.00 1.3 3-1
3 3 Maximum Fury 20.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Duvee 4.50 2.9 5-1
9 9 Adieu Le Chat 8.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Half Magic 12.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Coffee County 6.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Mr Elvin 2.50 6.4 12-1
7 7 Inthealy 5.00 7.6 14-1
6 6 It’s a Bird 6.00 7.6 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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