Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, February 5, 2022

February 5, 2022 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Royal Currency 0.80 1.3 3-1
2 2 Know It All Audrey 2.50 2.6 5-1
4 4 My Cara Mia Mine 10.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Can’t Fool Me 12.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Menily 8.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Tiffany Tale 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Tonight We Love 20.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 8 Tapizearance 3.00 2.9 5-1
1 2 Great Workout 3.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Raven Rocks 8.00 4 8-1
6 6 Johnny Fontaine 20.00 5.1 10-1
2 1 Emperor’s Cause 5.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Breadman 2.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Bureaucrat 12.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Fenway 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Toboggan S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 War Tocsin 30.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Drafted 8.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Happy Medium 0.20 3.5 7-1
2 2 Repo Rocks 10.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Hopeful Treasure 4.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Fazaro 2.50 1.1 2-1
6 6 Red Revolution 4.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Illustrious 1.80 2.5 5-1
8 8 Question My Sanity 15.00 4 8-1
4 4 Nova Loves a Fight 15.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Irie Spice 12.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 El Veinticuatro 6.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 R Boy Cheekum 10.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Blood Moon 20.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Runabout 3.00 2.3 4-1
10 9 Playwright 5.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 O Shea Can U See 12.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 High Command 15.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Noble Thought 6.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Potantico 6.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Twisted Tom 4.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Nutzforboltz 20.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Flowers for Lisa 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Prisoner 2.50 1.3 3-1
5 5 Hangar One 30.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Taco Bean 20.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Forest Spirit 6.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 El Mayor 8.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Bar Fourteen 5.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Halpert 6.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Magnificent Chrome 8.00 8.6 16-1
9 9 Litterbox 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Swinton 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 7 Dust Devil 4.50 2.9 6-1
5 6 No Burn 4.00 4.4 8-1
3 4 Fitzpatrick 20.00 4.5 9-1
8 9 American Gentleman 15.00 4.5 9-1
7 8 Southern District 4.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Chowda 8.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Starting Over 6.00 6.9 13-1
1A 3 Castle Chaos 6.00 7.2 14-1
4 5 Three Jokers 3.00 8.2 15-1
9 10 Handy 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Withers S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Early Voting 3.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Noneedtoworry 30.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Grantham 10.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Smarten Up 10.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Constitutionlawyer 3.50 5.8 11-1
4 4 Gilded Age 10.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Courvoisier 4.50 5.9 11-1
8 8 Un Ojo 20.00 6.1 12-1
10 10 Mr Jefferson 20.00 8 15-1
6 6 Unbridled Bomber 12.00 8.8 17-1
11 11 Cooke Creek 6.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Laban M Mo 20.00 1 2-1
11 11 Salute to America 15.00 1.9 3-1
6 6 Curlin’s Wisdom 5.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Asap Restoration 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Relate 4.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Golden Code 2.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 Moped Dennis 5.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Silent Running 20.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Raw Courage 10.00 8.2 15-1
1 1 Thrill of It 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Double Maker 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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