February 5, 2022 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Royal Currency | 0.80 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Know It All Audrey | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | My Cara Mia Mine | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Can’t Fool Me | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Menily | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tiffany Tale | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tonight We Love | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 8 | Tapizearance | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Great Workout | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Raven Rocks | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Johnny Fontaine | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Emperor’s Cause | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Breadman | 2.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bureaucrat | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fenway | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Toboggan S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | War Tocsin | 30.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Drafted | 8.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Happy Medium | 0.20 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Repo Rocks | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hopeful Treasure | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Fazaro | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Red Revolution | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Illustrious | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Question My Sanity | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nova Loves a Fight | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Irie Spice | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | El Veinticuatro | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | R Boy Cheekum | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Blood Moon | 20.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Runabout | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Playwright | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | O Shea Can U See | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | High Command | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Noble Thought | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Potantico | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Twisted Tom | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nutzforboltz | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Flowers for Lisa | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Prisoner | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hangar One | 30.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Taco Bean | 20.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Forest Spirit | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | El Mayor | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bar Fourteen | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Halpert | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Magnificent Chrome | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Litterbox | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Swinton | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 7 | Dust Devil | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | No Burn | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 4 | Fitzpatrick | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | American Gentleman | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Southern District | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chowda | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Starting Over | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1A | 3 | Castle Chaos | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | Three Jokers | 3.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Handy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Withers S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Early Voting | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Noneedtoworry | 30.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Grantham | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Smarten Up | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Constitutionlawyer | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gilded Age | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Courvoisier | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Un Ojo | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Mr Jefferson | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Unbridled Bomber | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Cooke Creek | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Laban M Mo | 20.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Salute to America | 15.00 | 1.9 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Curlin’s Wisdom | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Asap Restoration | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Relate | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Golden Code | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Moped Dennis | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Silent Running | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Raw Courage | 10.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Thrill of It | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Double Maker | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.