February 12, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Maximum Fury | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Classic’s Omega | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mista Valentine | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Reachforthesaber | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Unbridled Hope | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Little Leo | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Customize My Quest | 3.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Joeboy | 2.50 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Get Them Justin | 12.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Jeb’s Lucky Eight | 12.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | War Count | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jaci’s Royalty | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Budro Talking | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mangelsen | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Louisiana Moon | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | City Park | 3.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Payday Too | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Our Blue Jay | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Fish N Chick | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Strong Chick | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Moon Over Tuscany | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Katie’s Karat | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sneak Peek | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sweet Bay | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Brooklynn’s Dabomb | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Majestic Sign | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Peacock Kitten | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Jack the Umpire | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gunnison | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Healing | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Firewater Jake | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mishko | 8.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oh Say (IRE) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Criminal Defense | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Intrepid Heart | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Boyfriend Material | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Moonshine Now | 10.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Custom for Carlita | 8.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tuffology | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Active Girl | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bobbies Reason | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Peaceful Vision | 4.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Gilded Apple | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kehron’s Creed | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | The Complete Court | 3.50 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Oma Lee | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Fairwell Tax Break | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Lolloping | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fordland | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Spring Magic | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Zisisit (IRE) | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flower Garden | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Prima Ballerina | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Paris Paramour | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Awesome Hope | 10.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Shishito (IRE) | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Colors of the Wind | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Red Hot Mama | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Rosia Bay | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Vinegar Veggies | 12.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Poronui | 5.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hoist the Gold | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Candy Landing | 3.50 | 1.9 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kissalot | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ferociously | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jesuit | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Line Change | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Princess Lea | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blessed Anna | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Believing | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Youens | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flatter Me Silly | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Scarlett Lace | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Now Yus Cant Leave | 6.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Paytonsattheplate | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hohohoho | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blossom Road | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mo Normal | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Chief Kimosabi | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vero Campione | 20.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr Elvin | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Helaire | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Duvee | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Putthehammerdown | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Big Boo | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Autumn’s Super Ced | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.