February 14, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Looking Hot | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pat Hand Girl | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Reckless Sergeant | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | I’m a Custom to It | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Absolutely Mindy | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lake Runner | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bad Gal Riri | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Upham | 20.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tiz Light the Way | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Indy Tourist | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Big Falcon Rocket | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Freedom Factor | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Foolish Steve | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sharpendup | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tigerbeach | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon Tan | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 12 | Secret Vista | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Briar Jumper | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 13 | Blueridge Mountain | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | The Green Mo’ster | 8.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Star’s Dream | 6.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Blue Ridge Queen | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Midnight Trip | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 9 | Kittenofthe Court | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Nine Line Bind | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Two With a Ten | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Younmehoneybunny | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Star Prado | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hotmolly | 4.50 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Meg and Clair | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lil Ashley B. | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Balook | 20.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | G’s Deadline | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Money Well Spent | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Top Ten Duchess | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spellbinding | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | My Little Jen | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Savvy Shipman | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Air Guitar Star | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mila’s Gold | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Theboyzgalaxy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Shoetrick | 6.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Path to Success | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | T G’s Nelson | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gran Muchaco | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tizabigmick | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mosh Pit | 2.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Sumting Right | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Honey Run | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Golden Twist | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dial Ten for G | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Clara Belle | 3.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | C C’s Cowgirl | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Union Grad | 10.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 1A | 15 | Surrey | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Super Fire | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Chaton Rouge | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Freudian | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Twin Cause | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Zen (IRE) | 5.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | American Deputy | 6.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dressedtoimpress | 20.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Australasia | 2.50 | 0.9 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sterling Miss | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Euphoric | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Palio Flag | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Assertive Style | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Short Summer Dress | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sail On Ellen | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | T D Dance | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Spanish Kingdom | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mr. Hustle | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Cash Logistics | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lucky Curlin | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Perfect Speighty | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bemma’s Boy | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Excess Magic | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Jais’s Solitude | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Warrior in Chief | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Harbor Knight | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Money and Me | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Von Dom | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Chambliss | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mean Cannon | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Apriority Storm | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gallant Star | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Perfect Perigee | 2.50 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Semi Charmed Life | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.