February 18, 2022 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Thats Pretty Nice | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dusted | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Belleshazza | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Herecomesangelina | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Afilada | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mostly Harmless | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Bourbon Rebellion | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | To a T | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Calescent | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bella Principessa | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Mission | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jasminesque | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Boss Cara | 1.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Write This Down | 8.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | New York Banker | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Flower Moon | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tellaperfecttale | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Thegoddessofsnakes | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Montauk Daddy | 8.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mount Travers | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Alcools | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | Mi Tres Por Ciento (CHI) | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Brilliant Brooks | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eucharist | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Banyan Breeze | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Free Enterprise | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Flashndynamite | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vegas Weekend | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Primacy | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Customerexperience | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ice Princess | 1.80 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Frost Point | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hybrid Eclipse | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Noble Journey | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Straight Skinny | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mister Candy Ride | 1.80 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Make It in Ny | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Big Castle | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | El Mayor | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Patty O’Marc | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bellamy Dolce | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mashnee Girl | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cazilda Fortytales | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Khali Magic | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Epona’s Dream | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | B B’s Busted | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ifihadachance | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Amity Island | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Frost Me | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | We Ready | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stone Surprise | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Romantic Man | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Total Effort | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Napoleon Complex | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mister J T | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Alite | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | War Novel | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Exalted Charm | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Run White Rabbit | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rye Runner | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Motion to Strike | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.