Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, February 18, 2022

February 18, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Fort Bonz 8.00 1.1 2-1
7 7 Bourbon St Tappin 3.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Gypsy’s Soulmate 3.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Now Now Man 8.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Cohere 8.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Wish Upon a Star 3.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Bitsy’s Other Half 8.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 The Three Ks 8.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 My Gal Charlotte 12.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Tugboat 12.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Stop Shop N Drop 4.00 3.3 6-1
11 11 Custom Guitar 5.00 4 8-1
8 8 La Feme Jolie 20.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Zumra Bayou 3.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Janisthebeauty 8.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Conservatve Values 5.00 7 13-1
2 2 Memphis Meltdown 20.00 9 17-1
7 7 Mo Bella 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Classical Magnolia 15.00 10.1 19-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Thunder Ahead 10.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Grand Design 4.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Tio Blas 3.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Mr. Quality 4.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Charming Bullet 20.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 The Big Irishman 8.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 White Mist 6.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Da Gold Room 4.50 6.8 13-1
9 9 Kyle’s Bro Jimmy 12.00 8.1 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Dallas Volunteer 3.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Malibu Marie 3.50 2 4-1
5 5 Lola Flo 10.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Nana’s Gray 4.50 5.6 11-1
4 4 Memphis Cash Queen 3.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Lady Clare 8.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Mission Belle 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Ironit 10.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Love Ran Red 4.00 2 4-1
4 4 Royal O’Haigain 3.50 2.4 5-1
2 2 Beleout 3.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 A G’s Charlotte 6.00 5 9-1
1 1 Drop Dead Sexy 4.50 5.3 10-1
8 8 Graceleadsushome 4.50 6.2 12-1
6 6 Knights Sword 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Saratoga Pasodoble 20.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Say I Won’t 4.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Dove With a Cause 20.00 6.6 13-1
2 2 Eli Dancer 6.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Dashing Hero 20.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Pinkaboo 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 One More Laugh 3.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Gillian Elizabeth 2.50 SCRATCH
7 7 French Curline 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bombdiggity 2.50 1.2 2-1
2 2 Unbridled d’Oro 4.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Fine Cotton 6.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Dial It Up a Notch 10.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Ride the Plan 3.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Vegas Blue 8.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Joan’s Way 5.00 6.6 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Gold Bear 4.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Flying Fred 5.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Dover Strait 20.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Unorthodox 6.00 4 8-1
7 7 Crazy Genius 10.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Xtreme V. I. P. 6.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Tenor 10.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 American Smooth 6.00 8.3 16-1
1 1 Mr. J. McKay 3.50 9.1 17-1
10 10 Joyful Candy 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bird Empress 4.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 Bernabreezy 5.00 2 4-1
8 7 Sequist 3.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 Waterworks 5.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Mariah’s Fortune 5.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Miss Chamita 12.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Hazy Command 4.50 7.1 13-1
7 7 Deck of Cards 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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