February 19, 2022 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Credit Suspended | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kiss Me Smile | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Boom Roasted | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Crispy Gal | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Eudaimonia | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Midmon | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Get Your Gold | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Flattery’s Music | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Run Casper Run | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rickys Revenge | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Black Irish | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Matty’s Marauder | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Millean | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Blame It On Brutus | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Uno | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Smooth B | 12.00 | 0.8 | 1-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cost Basis | 0.80 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Big Engine | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Competitive Saint | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Answer In | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Oh My Belle | 1.80 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dini’s Destiny | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Classic Vinman | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mrs. Banks | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sterling Mistress | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Half Birthday | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Princess Riley | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Keen Dancer | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Kisses for Emily | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cerretta | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Celine the Queen | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Yellen | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | True Empress | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cindy’s Choice | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Salsa a Parte | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Darn That Song | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Scorpion Dynasty | 8.00 | 0.9 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Halpert | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Litterbox | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Breaking Stones | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ghostmon | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Majestic Tiger | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | War of Thrones | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 8 | Missalpha | 12.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | True Gold | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sicilia Mike | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Bad Guy | 0.60 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Vintage Hollywood | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gandy Dancing | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Dark Money | 0.60 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Binkster | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 9 | Big Mountain | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Hollie Hughes S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Runningwscissors | 12.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | South Africa | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wudda U Think Now | 0.80 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Boy Tate | 1.40 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jemography | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kaz’s Beach | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 6 | Little Miss Minion | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1A | 4 | Miss Flintshire | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mondeuse | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 5 | Sabreen | 1.80 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Torren’s Tale | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 9 | Phenomenal Woman | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Reeley Psyched | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bank Statement | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Soaring Mist | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.