Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, February 19, 2022

February 19, 2022 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Credit Suspended 6.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Kiss Me Smile 4.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Boom Roasted 3.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Crispy Gal 6.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Eudaimonia 10.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Midmon 15.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Get Your Gold 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Flattery’s Music 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Run Casper Run 8.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Rickys Revenge 12.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Black Irish 12.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Matty’s Marauder 2.50 2.9 6-1
5 5 Millean 3.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Blame It On Brutus 5.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Uno 2.00 4.3 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Smooth B 12.00 0.8 1-1
5 5 Cost Basis 0.80 1.2 2-1
1 1 Big Engine 6.00 2 4-1
3 3 Competitive Saint 8.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Answer In 1.60 2.5 5-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Oh My Belle 1.80 1.2 2-1
8 7 Dini’s Destiny 3.00 2.4 4-1
5 4 Classic Vinman 8.00 2.8 5-1
4 3 Mrs. Banks 10.00 3.5 7-1
6 5 Sterling Mistress 8.00 3.7 7-1
3 2 Half Birthday 3.50 3.8 7-1
1 1 Princess Riley 12.00 4 8-1
2 2 Keen Dancer 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Kisses for Emily 3.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Cerretta 8.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Celine the Queen 6.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Lady Yellen 5.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 True Empress 2.50 4.3 8-1
1 1 Cindy’s Choice 10.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Salsa a Parte 12.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Darn That Song 6.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Scorpion Dynasty 8.00 0.9 2-1
2 2 Halpert 3.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Litterbox 6.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Breaking Stones 2.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Ghostmon 4.50 4.1 8-1
5 5 Majestic Tiger 4.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 War of Thrones 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 8 Missalpha 12.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 True Gold 3.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 Sicilia Mike 8.00 2.5 5-1
1A 6 Bad Guy 0.60 3.2 6-1
6 7 Vintage Hollywood 8.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Gandy Dancing 30.00 6.8 13-1
1 2 Dark Money 0.60 6.9 13-1
2 1 Binkster 20.00 SCRATCH
8 9 Big Mountain 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Hollie Hughes S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Runningwscissors 12.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 South Africa 10.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Wudda U Think Now 0.80 3.7 7-1
4 4 My Boy Tate 1.40 3.8 7-1
3 3 Jemography 12.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Kaz’s Beach 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 6 Little Miss Minion 8.00 2.1 4-1
1A 4 Miss Flintshire 10.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Mondeuse 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 5 Sabreen 1.80 4.1 8-1
3 3 Torren’s Tale 6.00 4.3 8-1
8 9 Phenomenal Woman 3.50 4.6 9-1
6 7 Reeley Psyched 4.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Bank Statement 10.00 5.1 10-1
7 8 Soaring Mist 20.00 6.1 12-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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