February 19, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Drewsilla | 15.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Candy’s Pride | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Honeysuckledelight | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Canada’s Customs | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Mylies Star | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cajun Two Step | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pineapple Alley | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | My Royal Princess | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Isn’t It Time | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Easy Aces | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | I Am Up | 12.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Georgetown Road | 12.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Taleofreadychianti | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Royal Flower | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Indigo Miss | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Rather Be Lucky | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Imogene Malvina | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Arsinoe | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Carnelian | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Baronne | 12.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Almanzo | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mask Patrol | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Catnip | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mazuma | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Minnesota Ready | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | More Than Work | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Freedom’s Way | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Seeking Splendor | 50.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Heston | 12.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Momentous | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Major Contender | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Marsalis | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Eye Dee Kay | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tepeu | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Art Heist | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Vintage Vinyl | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Port Royal | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blue Bonzai | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Can’t Hush This | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Carillo | 8.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Reigning Spirit | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Continental Coins | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Regular Guy | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Blue Lou Boyle (IRE) | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | El Socio | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Courageously | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | More Than Blessed | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | New Year Surprise | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Shippingport | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Wing Commander | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Prairie | 12.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Beyblader | 15.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | King Ottoman | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Scotland Yard | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Vinco | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Maasai Warrior | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Big Blue Line | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Downtown Connector | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Boss’ Dialin In | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Strong Quality | 4.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bon Bueno | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Colonel Power S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Toro Strike | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Seven Scents | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cowan | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gray Attempt | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Just Might | 1.40 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Strike Me Down | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pyron | 4.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Inhalation (GB) | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | Shinnecock Hills | 4.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Guntown | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Gunfighter | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1A | 10 | Strava | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 5 | Cyberknife | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Peaceful Waters | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Kupuna | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Yono | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Shamayim | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Stowaway | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Albert M. Stall Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Out of Sorts | 8.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Adelaide Miss | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Amiche | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | I Hear You | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dawn’s Dancer | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | She Can’t Sing | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pass the Plate | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Drapes | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Abscond | 3.50 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mo Normal | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Mineshaft S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Silver Prospector | 15.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Untreated | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Midcourt | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sprawl | 20.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Miles D | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | O Besos | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Happy American | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Olympiad | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Title Ready | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Fort Peck | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Big Dreaming | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Fair Grounds S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Adhamo (IRE) | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cavalry Charge | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Captivating Moon | 20.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Major Fed | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Largent | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Halo Again | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Santin | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Monarchs Glen (GB) | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Forty Under | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Two Emmys | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Point Me By | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Rachel Alexandra S. Presented By Fasig-tipton
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | La Crete | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Hidden Connection | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Turnerloose | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Goddess of Fire | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Candy Raid | 30.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Divine Huntress | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dream Lith | 6.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 10 | 10 | California Angel | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Mattie B | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Awake At Midnyte | 3.50 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 2 | 2 | North County | 8.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 13 (Stakes) – Risen Star S. Presented By Lamarque Ford
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Zandon | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tawny Port | 12.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Trafalgar | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Epicenter | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pioneer of Medina | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Pappacap | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bodock | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Slow Down Andy | 4.50 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Russian Tank | 50.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Smile Happy | 3.50 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.