Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, February 19, 2022

February 19, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Drewsilla 15.00 2 4-1
2 2 Candy’s Pride 5.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Honeysuckledelight 6.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Canada’s Customs 2.50 2.5 5-1
10 10 Mylies Star 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Cajun Two Step 20.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Pineapple Alley 4.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 My Royal Princess 20.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Isn’t It Time 6.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Easy Aces 12.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 I Am Up 12.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 Georgetown Road 12.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Taleofreadychianti 6.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Royal Flower 4.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Indigo Miss 3.50 1.8 3-1
9 9 Rather Be Lucky 3.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Imogene Malvina 5.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Lady Arsinoe 10.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 Carnelian 10.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Baronne 12.00 1.2 2-1
10 10 Almanzo 4.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Mask Patrol 8.00 2 4-1
4 4 Catnip 8.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Mazuma 3.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Minnesota Ready 15.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 More Than Work 2.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Freedom’s Way 8.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Seeking Splendor 50.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Heston 12.00 8.2 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Momentous 6.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Major Contender 4.50 1.8 3-1
9 9 Marsalis 3.50 1.9 4-1
7 7 Eye Dee Kay 10.00 2 4-1
6 6 Tepeu 8.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Art Heist 4.00 3 6-1
5 5 Vintage Vinyl 5.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Port Royal 20.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Blue Bonzai 30.00 5 9-1
8 8 Can’t Hush This 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Carillo 8.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Reigning Spirit 6.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Continental Coins 8.00 2.3 4-1
12 12 Regular Guy 12.00 2.6 5-1
11 11 Blue Lou Boyle (IRE) 3.50 2.7 5-1
6 6 El Socio 4.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Courageously 6.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 More Than Blessed 20.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 New Year Surprise 20.00 9.6 18-1
8 8 Shippingport 20.00 9.6 18-1
1 1 Wing Commander 12.00 10 19-1
10 10 Prairie 12.00 10.6 20-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Beyblader 15.00 1.2 2-1
9 9 King Ottoman 5.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Scotland Yard 5.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Vinco 4.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Maasai Warrior 3.50 2.4 4-1
8 8 Big Blue Line 20.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Downtown Connector 15.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Boss’ Dialin In 10.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Strong Quality 4.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 Bon Bueno 8.00 8.6 16-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Colonel Power S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Toro Strike 5.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Seven Scents 8.00 2 4-1
1 1 Cowan 4.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Gray Attempt 8.00 3 6-1
2 2 Just Might 1.40 3.1 6-1
7 7 Strike Me Down 15.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Pyron 4.50 7 13-1
8 8 Inhalation (GB) 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 6 Shinnecock Hills 4.50 1.4 3-1
7 7 Guntown 5.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Gunfighter 4.50 2.3 4-1
1A 10 Strava 4.50 2.6 5-1
6 5 Cyberknife 3.50 2.7 5-1
4 3 Peaceful Waters 4.50 2.8 5-1
5 4 Kupuna 5.00 2.9 6-1
2 1 Yono 20.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Shamayim 20.00 6.9 13-1
3 2 Stowaway 12.00 8.6 16-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Albert M. Stall Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Out of Sorts 8.00 1.1 2-1
6 5 Adelaide Miss 8.00 1.9 4-1
8 7 Amiche 5.00 1.9 4-1
9 8 I Hear You 10.00 2 4-1
7 6 Dawn’s Dancer 8.00 2.6 5-1
5 4 She Can’t Sing 12.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Pass the Plate 3.00 3.3 6-1
10 9 Drapes 10.00 3.3 6-1
3 2 Abscond 3.50 8.6 16-1
2 2 Mo Normal 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Mineshaft S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Silver Prospector 15.00 1.4 3-1
10 8 Untreated 4.50 1.5 3-1
7 5 Midcourt 8.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Sprawl 20.00 2.2 4-1
5 4 Miles D 3.50 2.3 4-1
8 6 O Besos 6.00 2.9 6-1
9 7 Happy American 6.00 4.1 8-1
4 3 Olympiad 3.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Title Ready 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Fort Peck 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Big Dreaming 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Fair Grounds S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Adhamo (IRE) 4.50 1.5 3-1
1 1 Cavalry Charge 12.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Captivating Moon 20.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Major Fed 12.00 2.6 5-1
10 10 Largent 3.50 2.9 5-1
7 7 Halo Again 6.00 3 6-1
3 3 Santin 12.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Monarchs Glen (GB) 12.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Forty Under 8.00 3.9 7-1
11 11 Two Emmys 3.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Point Me By 20.00 9.6 18-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Rachel Alexandra S. Presented By Fasig-tipton

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 La Crete 8.00 1.5 3-1
11 11 Hidden Connection 3.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Turnerloose 12.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Goddess of Fire 8.00 2.9 6-1
6 6 Candy Raid 30.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Divine Huntress 6.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Dream Lith 6.00 8.1 15-1
10 10 California Angel 30.00 8.4 16-1
3 3 Miss Mattie B 15.00 8.6 16-1
9 9 Awake At Midnyte 3.50 9 17-1
2 2 North County 8.00 10.6 20-1

RACE NUMBER 13 (Stakes) – Risen Star S. Presented By Lamarque Ford

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Zandon 4.50 1.5 3-1
4 4 Tawny Port 12.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Trafalgar 10.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Epicenter 4.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Pioneer of Medina 10.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Pappacap 4.00 2.9 5-1
9 9 Bodock 10.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 Slow Down Andy 4.50 8 15-1
2 2 Russian Tank 50.00 9 17-1
8 8 Smile Happy 3.50 9.6 18-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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