February 21, 2022 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Heads Or Tails | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Moons the Limit | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Triple Brown | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Empire Station | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Acalteque | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | On the Hill | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bointheback | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Ginnsu Warrior | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Not Yet Charlie | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bustin Pietre | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Always Charming | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ready to March | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Turnpike Bob | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Winning Drive | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | High Command | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Vicar’s Legend | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fleet Warrior | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Healy’s Hope | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Summer Bourbon | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | P J Advantage | 2.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Gagliano | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | Mission Trail | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Queentigua | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Carly Hustle | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pazzion | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Grape Therapy | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Stormi Cat Lady | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Voice of Spring | 0.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cave Man | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sensibleconclusion | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Front Porch | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Regal Empire | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kong Loves a Fight | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Excursionniste | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rcaptivating | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Miss Mi Mi | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Guns Blazing | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Starship Reina | 30.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shasta Star | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Quality Stones | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gentle Annie | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Sirenic | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Addilyn | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Maddie May S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Thinking It Over | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Caragate | 15.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Yo Cuz | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stone Creator | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Reigning Chick | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Moam | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Captainsdaughter | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Sandy’s Garden | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Slugo | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Remembermom | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Forestwood Lane | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Igottahaveit | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tough Workout | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Vincent | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Out of the Breech | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | V Pattern | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Unlikely | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tamburro’s Sox | 3.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.